probability playProduction estimate for Croinor:
Could be in production as soon as July ifeverything goes as planned. It is expected to produce 40,000 ounces of gold a year at cash costs of about $550 an ounce.
40,000 ounces production/year
1,100 sales price/ounce
550 cost/ounce
550 gross profit
$22,000,000 gross profit / year
The way I see this is a probability play. On the downside it could go to 3 cents or so if the deal fails, if the deal is successful, however, then this one can quickly go to 15. In months time it can be in the 20s.
Attach your own probalities to the payouts, if we use 50/50 then probality payout is 50% chance of losing 3 cents and 50% chance of making 9 cents+ in a relatively short time.
As for myself I'm not attaching 50/50 odds, I believe the chances of the deal going through is higher than 50%.
Up to each individual's risk-reward preferences as to whether they get in now or not.