RE: RE: Remember The KRGDivide the net value from 1.5 billion bbls OOIP
and you'll find it is lower than the current share price.
So 1,500,000,000 x 22% recovery x 37% ownership x $14.40 per P2 reserve / 292,000,000 shares = $6.02
Below is the back-up for my numbers. Care to share your numbers with back-up?
I used 22% as an average based on the initial resource assessment which read.
6. While the above quantities have not been adjusted for risk, AJM has
assigned reserves to 7 formations. The Cretaceous which currently
contains 3 target reservoirs has been estimated to have an average
chance of success of 30%. The Jurassic currently contains 3 target
reservoirs and has been estimated to have an average success chance of
21% and the Triassic has 1 target reservoir with an estimated chance of
success of 17%.
The P2 value of $14.40 the 2009 M&A review (Thanks grodt, see his entry on March 16 2010 at 3:18 pm for the full article)
Global Oil and Gas Upstream M&A 2009 Review: New Assetsand New Buyers Bring Deal Value to US$153 Billion
Monday, Mar 08, 2010
PLS, Inc. with its international partner Derrick PetroleumServices and further analysis from Rystad Energy report, despite adifficult economic cycle, Global Upstream M&A activity for oil andgas deals in 2009 totaled $153 billion and surpassed the pre-crashlevels in 2007. According to Brian Lidsky, Managing Director ofHouston-based research, transactions and advisory firm PLS, Inc.,"Despite the recovery in the total dollar amount of Global oil and gasdeals in 2009, the markets have not yet fully recovered as tracked bythe number of actual transactions above the $100 million mark, whichcame in at 124 in 2009 versus 160 in 2008 and 168 in 2007. Furthermore,the 2009 market is characterized by new buyers and new assets, a trendwe believe will continue in 2010 and beyond."
Oil and gas valuations globally, based on an evaluation of the $100million plus deal market and prices paid per 2P entitlement reserves,ended 2009 at the $14.40 per BOE level, up 40% from a trough number of$10.20 per BOE seen in Q1 2009 but down from the $20.90 per BOE peakseen in Q1 2008. In the U.S., valuations for 1P oil reserves ended theyear at about $14.10 per barrel, down 25% from the 2008 peak. For 1P gasreserves, values ended 2009 at about $1.80 per Mcf, down 40% from the2008 peak.