Arcan Resources Ltd ARNBF

RE: Revised Haywood Report Out

[opg210]

Thanks for the analyst report! Looks like great news. I am always a bit suspicious of these, the day after they buy a bunch of stock in a private placement - they definitely have a vested interest.
However, it seems to me like these guys have been talking to management (obviously) which is reflected in some of the comments here. Not that I think ARN management did anything inappropriate, but these guys are talking about pressure data, which is central information to how things might unfold. I certainly hope that they are right with regards to future locations being higher productivity. 
The analysis I've gathered second hand is that there could be significant variability in the reservoir quality vertically. I've seen the core analysis on the Celtic well I mentioned earlier which leads me to believe that will be true. However, this could be the factor that makes this whole play worth hundreds of millions - that variability would have rendered vertical wells, or even conventional horizontals, relatively useless. It might be exactly the type of reservoir that can be properly blown open with HZMSF wells. Time will tell.
I keep looking for reasons as to why this might not be a goldmine (and really would appreciate useful comments if anyone out there thinks  the whole thing is crap) but can't find many that seem worth worrying about. One that pops to mind is that no one else seems to be remotely interested in this play if there is such great potential (though PennWest and Pengrowth are trying a few wells) - I can't figure out exactly why Celtic sold, though the price was good. I would have thought they'd have waited til ARN had to release info on their well before selling out. So that is a bit of a danger signal to me. However, perhaps it was non-core for them, and they got a great price per flowing bbl, so there could be other reasons for them to sell. I don't follow them so can't comment on their story.
Another possible reason that this isn't a hot area is that there isn't much land available. The Swan Hills buildup and Platform is a relatively compact  and well defined structure, as opposed to the Cardium or even Bakken for that matter, that go on for miles and miles over many townships. So even if someone was interested, it is very difficult to get a toe hold. I haven't been watching crown postings around the fringe; that would be a good indicator of other interest.
Regardless, I can't see any reason to sell yet!
opg21