RE: SIRCOOP, QUESTION.............................It's hard to say really. NR on the sidetrack in a couple weeks will probably give us a boost, but the Stella news yesterday is not fully valued IMO.
That said, seasonally weak market effects could come to play, holding us down for a bit. If there is any pullback it's an opportunity to add as our risk premium has dropped significantly with Stella backing us up. I expect total company reserves to grow by 25% with the new Stella info, to about 38mmboe. Fast tracking Stella would also give a boost, and sets us up for a hub re. Hurricane and Harrier.
All said, it's anyone's guess really to end of May, but the trend is up, and we have a value/growth play here with superb management and a clear plan for 24K bopd by 2014 (I say it will be closer to 30K) and we have not yet seen what producing assets they may buy (and acquire debt?). Finally, IAE is throwing off the cash now, very positive, they can pay their way (other than perhaps a large asset purchase).
Longer term, we double this year ($5 by end 2010) and again next year ($10 by exit mid-2012). If PoO is $150 in 2014 and they're producing 30K bopd, well, it's well above $10 is all I'll say.
If you can buy a core position to hold and trade a few as we go you'll do just fine. Biggest thing now is reduced risk, mainly just market risk now, so watch the macro carefully.
COOP