GREY:LSTMF - Post by User
Comment by
Wellsitteron Apr 29, 2010 7:19pm
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Post# 17046423
RE: Laughable and forgetable
RE: Laughable and forgetableGood post. Mind if I take issue with a few points? I agree that naming the company for the girl band was a mistake but like Cenovus, and many others, they can change that. Rather than a management that is "attracted to shiny objects", I think they may be taking a very prudent assessment of their Bakken investment and moving to limit exposure and redeploy capital. I appreciate this tact and use it myself in my investments. I make my judgements based on the information at hand and if something changes for the negative, I move to cash and redeploy also.
As for the $850mm in debentures (I didn't check your numbers), as I previously posted, that could well be only 1x revenue from the new assets for 2011 and even less in 2012 based on continued drilling and increasing production from the Cardium.
I agree that the cap-ex is aggressive and optimistic but I know that fabricators in Edmonton and Calgary aren't exactly overwhelmed at present with SAGD or otherwise. Deals can still be had for fabrication. Steel prices on the other hand, are another matter but again, my understanding is that the Cardium is water-free and basically pipeline ready so no treaters would be necessary immediately anyway. A few tanks at a central pipeline pumping station might be all that's required. Not particularly onerous if I'm right (big if).
No need to run from the Bakken though. Perhaps a simple farm-in deal with someone to carry-on drilling and perhaps even take-over operating. This idea gets them out of the cap-ex in a disappointing area while keeping them at the dance.