RE: WFE NAV
My assessment will be simplistic, and those of you with production models will undoubtedly do this more accurately. I call this the quick and dirty review.
First, let's discount the exploration locations (160 wells), so that leaves 500 development wells with new technology enabling increased exploitation. Second, WFE management have figured out how to exploit this type of play after a year of development so most risk is mitigated. Third, assume a longer term flowrate of 30 bpd/well which assumes no more optimizations.
My simpleton production figure comes out to 500 x 30 = 15,000 boepd vs the exit rate of 2100 boepd (probably over a 3 to 4 year growth period). This stock has a ways to go still and the management tend to be conservative. I don't have a problem with a 30% NAV uptake with this sort of upside potential. I see WFE doubling in share price over the next year if things remain positive. I'm a patient investor, so share price next month doesn't really matter much to me. Discount my production by 33% and the story is still quite attractive for the share price over the next 2 to 3 years. It may be pre-mature for a sale but that may change in 6 to 12 months if the market stays good, as the seniors see this play develop.
Novus trades at 1/2 the market cap but seem to be 1/4 of the company at best based on production, reserves and drilling locations. However, the market likes their management and investors are willing to pay a big premium. The recent Novus share offering may have something to do with the share price. There is not much info for Novus so it is difficult to do a solid comparison. Perhaps some of the analysts that follow both will do a comparison, since they know more than me about valuations.
Best of luck in all your investments!
cheers,
dmacd