GREY:NTCXF - Post by User
Post by
ck123on May 01, 2010 11:48am
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Post# 17052117
projected timeline
projected timelineMy question is, what is the projected timeline for the "commercial"development of Natcore's Tandem Cell Program? Does anyone know atarget for this? I haven't been able to find this on their website orthe current MD&A, partly because IMO, they're still in R$D phase.Any comments would be appreciated.
All in all, this looks to meas a very good long term investment. I'm just wondering if/when theshare price will ever consolidate. I'm sure it will, but at whatbase? Very peculiar animal, lol. atb
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The target for the commerical development is that there is no official target... but take it as soon as possible. This is likely the reason for the paralell reearch and development track. I was told we should be hearing about something early next year with the tandem from Scarpa.
I can point you to the current statements from Provini regarding successes of Newcyte with quantum dot implementation in a tandem cell...
Shortlyafter the Rice/Barron research agreement was signed and funded, Natcoreacquired another company, NewCyte, Inc., and all its intellectualproperty — including technology related to liquid phase growth ofsilicon dioxide on a class of materials called fullerenes. NewCyte alsohad technology, resulting from an Air Force research contract, that hadspecific application to our tandem solar cell project. We hadidentified this exciting technology and felt it would be complementaryto Natcore’s photovoltaic goals. Specifically, the NewCyte technologyincorporated quantum dots in the basal region of a tandem cell toimprove both the beginning-of-life and end-of-life performance of thegallium arsenide middle cell used in space solar applications. NewCytewas able to determine the proper number of layers of quantum dots,their most desirable size and the best location of the aggregate oflayers within the cell.
In the radio interview Barron explains that the tandem technology is published and proven. He is working on the patterning - Newcyte has been able to accomplish this previously for the AirForce.
The AR is worth the investment at the current moment. Early last year, a projected estimate $100 million in revenues after 4 years of the AR deployment was expressed to Bill Cara (see Cara Community Jan 2009).
As expressed earlier today... if that dilutes to a projected $1 EPS. I believe solar companies are valued at 10X EPS (may be wrong). There are other potential uses for AR deposition and so LPD may play a role in these and this can increase the revenue.
We have to remember that growth in the solar industry will accelerate as we get closer to grid parity and as the demand for alternative energies increases. Solar will move from a multi-billion dollar market to a multi-trillion dollar market. There are so many products that oil can be used for other than burning for its heat and as oil gets more difficult to extract the oil will likely be better reserved for those needs.
We have scratched the surface of LPD potential. LPD may be what PCR has been to genomics. Natcore's potential for game changing technology in solar. Natcore's technology can deliver us in the computer and fibre optic arenas as well. We still have yet to understand what Newcyte has to offer (artificial retinas, bio-sensors) - if you scan the internet you can find Flood's patent application for the process of coating fullerenes.
The AR alone is worth the investment risk.
Now add Newcytes potential.
Now add Vanguards chemical bath deposition... 100-150mw - 200 million - 300million in revenue for an investment of 10-15 million to produce solar cells at 60-70cents a watt.
Now add Tandem...
I really wish they would update the website so we can learn more.