RE: RE: contrarian indicatorTo my knowledge David Baines is the only editorialist who has gone on record to say that Westport will never amount to anything. The fact that they are still in business and continuing to develop JVs (roughly) 12 years after his first negative article, gives him "idiot status" in my books; not due to the fact that he was wrong, but that he was wrong multiple times. I'm sure if someone asked him about Westport today, he'd still predict that it was going to be a flop by the end of the year.
You're welcome to listen to Baines if you like, we will not miss you here. I will listen to my own gut feelings, and with articles written like the one below, I would certainly trust my instincts over Baine's view any day...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2010-Alternative-Energy-Stock-twst-2355928638.html?x=0&.v=1
2010 Alternative Energy Stock Picks From Former NASA Project Prometheus Program Executive; Read On For His Insights On The Sector
On Thursday May 6, 2010, 10:46 am EDT
67 WALL STREET, New York - May 6, 2010 - The Wall Street Transcript has just published its Alternative Energy and Utilities Report offering a timely review of the sector to serious investors and industry executives. This Special feature contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with public company CEOs, Equity Analysts and Money Managers. The full issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online.
Topics covered: The Case for Natural Gas - Energy Policy and the Climate Bill - Infrastructure Build-out and Clean Cities projects - Global Outlook for Alternative Energy Sectors - Geographical Differences and Opportunities in Alternative Energy Technology Adoption - Energy Efficiency and Demand Response - Regulated vs. Unregulated Utilities
Companies include: AT&T (T); El Paso Electric (EE); A123Systems (AONE); ALLETE (ALE); Allegheny (AYE); Alliant (LNT); Ameren (AEE); American Electric Power Compan (AEP); American Superconductor (AMSC); Azure Dynamics (AZD); Badger Meter (BMI); Black & Decker (SWK); CMS Energy (CMS); Calpine (CPN); and many more.
In the following brief excerpt from the Alternative Energy And Utilities Report, expert analysts discuss the outlook for the sector and for investors.
Eric Stine is a Senior Research Analyst with Northland Securities, Inc., and focuses on investment opportunities within clean technology. Mr. Stine has been in the securities industry since 1994. Prior to joining Northland, he was a Senior Trader with Miller, Johnson, Steichen, Kinnard and R.J. Steichen. He is Series 7, 63, 86, 87 and 55 licensed, and he holds a B.S. in finance from Miami University, in Oxford, Ohio.
TWST: Let's start with a brief overview of your coverage of alternative energy, including the specific names you follow.
Mr. Stine: I definitely cover a pretty broad grouping of companies, but can separate them into a few subsets. First would be alternative vehicles and fuels, and my coverage here includes Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE). They are the leading supplier of compressed and liquefied natural gas as a transportation alternative to gasoline and diesel. I cover Fuel Systems Solutions (FSYS), which provides alternative fuel systems and components for the conversion of light-duty vehicles to bi-fuel, enabling a vehicle to run on either propane or CNG and then have gasoline or diesel as a backup. The company also sells fuel systems for industrial applications, such as power generation and forklifts. I cover Westport Innovations (WPRT), which is a dominant provider of natural gas engines. On the medium-duty side in transit and refuse vehicles, this is through a joint venture with Cummins (CMI). Then on the heavy-duty side, they sell LNG fuel systems, and those would be for heavy-duty Class 8 trucks. The last company in this grouping is Chart Industries (GTLS) . It's a little bit different than the others. They provide cryogenic process equipment, and also cryogenic distribution and storage equipment for hydrocarbon and industrial gases.
TWST: Are there any other metrics or trends that you would tell investors to keep an eye on specific to alternative fuels and vehicles?
Mr. Stine: I would say, as we talked about on the legislative side, is progress of the NAT GAS Act. Something to watch is also the commodity cost spread, which is the spread between oil and natural gas. Right now, it is over 20 to 1, which is pretty close to historical highs but may become more of the norm given that natural gas prices remain at these low levels, despite the fact that oil is on the rise. This gives a pretty good indicator of the fuel savings available at the pump for fleets using natural gas. Another thing to look at would be increased OEM involvement, and that has started to happen - a lot of companies coming out with natural gas trucks. And that signals, I think, that these companies view this end market as very real and as a very appealing market for them, especially in a trucking market that has been pretty difficult over the last year. The other thing would be use by high-profile fleets. AT And T (T) is in the process of transitioning 8,000 of their vehicles to compressed natural gas. Verizon (VZ) is in the process of doing the same thing. There are a number of other fleets that are involved in some of these DOE Clean Cities projects, such as Ryder ® and UPS (UPS), and this is the kind of thing I think is needed for more widespread acceptance. It certainly makes the decision a lot easier for a smaller owner operator, if they see that the big companies are starting to do it.
TWST: Looking at your coverage universe as a whole, considering current valuations, which of your stocks do you think represents the best bargains right now and why?
Mr. Stine: The company that I would say would be Chart Industries. It's a late-cycle company, and so right now, it is really feeling the impact of the sharp pullback in energy spending from 2009, and that is going to impact them in fiscal year 2010. But that being said, the conditions and the outlook in their numerous end markets are improving. And as you look out into fiscal year 2011, I think the business looks quite a bit better. The stock is trading just over seven times EV to EBITDA and it looks pretty attractive here.
TWST: If you were going to invest in only one of these stocks today, which would it be and why?
Mr. Stine: Right now, it would be Chart, given that valuation. I mean, it's a company that has a dominant market share in all of their business segments. I think it is a great way to invest in the global growth of natural gas and LNG, and that does include in transportation applications on the infrastructure side. The other company that I would point to is Westport Innovations. I just think that the long-term outlook for Westport, given their market dominance in medium and heavy-duty applications is pretty compelling. So I like that one going forward as well.
The Wall Street Transcript is a unique service for investors and industry researchers - providing fresh commentary and insight through verbatim interviews with CEOs and research analysts. This Special issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online .