Southern Pacific Resource Corp STPJF

Energy Oil & Gas E&P

Southern Pacific Resource Corp. is a Canada-based company, which is engaged in the thermal production of heavy oil in Senlac, Saskatchewan on a property known as STP-Senlac, and thermal production of bitumen on a property located in the Athabasca region of Alberta known as STP-McKay, as well as exploration for and development of in-situ oil sands in the Athabasca region of Alberta. Its STP-McKay property consists of oil sands leases totaling approximately 37,760 acres. The Company’s operations also include Anzac, Hangingstone and Ells. The Company’s STP-McKay property is located approximately 45 kilometers northwest Ft. McMurray. The Anzac project covers approximately 117 kilometers of two-dimensional (2D) seismic. The Company owns 80% interest in Hangingstone project. The Ells project covers approximately 164 kilometers of two-dimensional (2D) seismic.

GREY:STPJF - Post by User

Southern Pacific Resource Corp

Bullboard Posts

Post by rehsifylfon May 10, 2010 9:23am

623 Views

Post# 17080070

March 30 post

Pretty funny -

Actual Close Price for STP on May 6th was 1.11 -

Check out my post below from March 30th - If the 6th turns out to be the low at $1.11, the near future looks pretty good.

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My memory isn't the greatest, but I was trying to remember the sequnce of events with Bankers petroleum last year when they did a similar type of offering (albeit fewer shares and at a higher price). So I went back to look:

2 Mar 2009 - BNK $1.28 - Baseline - 27% below offering price
26 Mar - $1.93 - 10% higher than offering price
15 Apr - $1.92 - 10% higher than offering price
16 Apr - $44M financing @ $1.75 per unit - Close - $1.83 - %4.5 higher than offering price
22 Apr - $1.6 - Note - 0.15 below Financing price - 7.6% lower than offering price
12 May - $1.95 (note the financing closed on May 7th) - 11.5% higher than offering price
12 Jun - $2.21 - 26% higher than offering
12 Jul - $1.88 - 7.5% higher than offering
12 Aug - $3.14 - 79% higher
12 Sep - $4.02 - 130% higher
....
Today $9.07 (~ 1 year later) - 420% higher

Its interesting because, to me, these companies are very similar cases (except BNK probably has higher 2P (now), had ~same production as STP but was increasing production significantly without a thermal project, whereas STP production is down to stable until the thermal production starts - quite far out). Bankers production is much higher now and the cashflow high enough that they probably don't have to dilute to pay for a pilot thermal plant. In any event the companies both produce HO, both have current production to fund some capital, both have large 2P, and both had good management and lots of potential.

The timing of the financing and the price performance up to and at the offering mirrors that of STP very closely (I've staggered the dates because STP offering was 2 weeks later than BNKs):

16 Mar 2010 - STP $1.00 - 20% below offering price
14 Apr - $1.29 - 7.5% above offering price
26 Apr - $1.25 - 4% higher than offering
27 Apr - $115 M Financing @1.2 per unit - Close $1.25 - 4% higher tna offering
4 May ? Should represent the low and if follws BNK could be as low as $1.1
18 May - Offering closes - $1.37
28 Jun - $1.51

It will be interesting to track going forward. If you want to wait for $1.1 or $1.15 - good luck with that. If it goes there, I'll buy even more. But, you just have to ask youself, if it only goes down to $1.16 and you don't get any, and it goes up to $1.51 by end of June - was it really worth it trying to save a nickel?

Anyway folks - have fun, don't sweat this one, and Good Luck!