RE: SOME BASIC INFO WITH NO HYPEI'm lazy, especially where it concerns those who have not done their DD.
That said, here you go and welcome aboard.
COOP
'A view of where IAE is and where it isgoing:
Courtseyof a post by 7Kiwi on advfn bb on 24 April. A very good summary imho.We should also have the results of the Stella sidetrack re thereservoir fluids composition at Andrews / Ekofisk sands potential laterthis week or early next week.
'A view of where IAE is andwhere it is going:
1) Current declared 2P: ~37mmboe, withproduction ~5-6,000bopd net. Current sp factoring in ~45mmboe reservesplus cash
2) Beatrice Alpha workovers likely to add ~750bopd net(due to start early May - my comment).
3) Incremental reserveslikely from “behind the pipe” zone Bravo “discovery”, with similarpotential at Alpha, and may some additional reserves in deeperformations. Ballpark estimate say 1-3mmbo net extra.
4) Polly, notincluded in current 2P. Ballpark estimate 3-5mmbo net extra.
5)Sybil, not included in current 2P. Doubtful commerciality, but withhigher oil prices, say an additional 2mmbo net extra.
6) Stella.Currently has ~9mmboe reserves declared, split 7mmboe to Andrews, and~2mmboe to the Ekofisk. Expectations (which have been exceeded) werefor the Andrews appraisal to double reserves. So, the result so farsets my expectations that an extra 7-12mmboe have been discovered.Success with the sidetrack in the Ekofisk/Tor may add a further3-10mmboe, giving a total range of 5-12mmboe net from the Ekofisk/Tor.Recently announced debt funding may allow first oil to be a bit earlierthan early 2012, bringing ~9,000boepd on stream.
7) Harrier.Appraisal upside of ~16mmboe in “possible” reserves from the website.Not clear on when this will be drilled, although the deal with CMIseems to allow for it.
8) Hurricane. ~8mmboe “Possible” Upside
9) GSA Explo upside. There are Paleocene targets, but very little in theway of prospective resources have been declared. Further upside fromthe 5% carry on the HPHT opportunities. No timelines given for HPHTdrilling yet, but in the hands of Maersk.
10) Athena. Productionmid-2011, adding ~5,000boepd production. Limited 3P upside. Potentialto acquire the Zeus stake from Rheochem, and potentially their explotargets, Thunderball and Metis.
11) Carna. First gas late 2011 orearly 2012. Explo upside 30% of 700bcf in place, say 490 recoverable,or 147bcf net to IAE, or 24mmboe.
12) Acquisition(s). IAE hasdropped strong hints that an acquisition is on the cards. New debtfacility seems to set up the stage for ~$100m of borrowing capacity tofund an acquisition, although probably some stock will also be issued.Reserves, production and pricing of transaction unknown.
13) 26thLicensing round. Potential to acquire more explo acreage.
So,in summary, we have 37mmboe. Adding on the range of opportunities abovegives a range of potential reserves at about 53-117mmboe 2P (puttingthe bottom range of the upside at Harrier, Hurricane and Carna atzero), plus explo upside in GSA plus acquisitions. Production rising to8-9000boepd next year, and much higher in 2012, plus whatever isacquired in the deal(s) under discussion. Putting $10/boe multiplier onthat and adding $35m of cash gives a fully diluted sp range of213p-454p over 2-3 years or so [Edit: plus the impact of GSAexploration and acquisitions].
Warren Verbonac 21 page report with a$4.00 target price.
WarrenVerbonac, now with Union Securities and the 1st analyst to coverIthaca in 2006, has published a 21 page report with a $4.00 targetprice.
- Also posted on the British Interactive Investor discussionboard
.
Highlights include:
Production is expected to average5,100 bd in 2010,
exclusively oil.
• Sequential development ofAthena, the Stella area,
Carna and Polly discoveries is expected toincrease
equivalent production almost five-fold within four
years.
•The Company trades at a large discount to its proven
and probableasset value of $5.38.
• The 3P asset value more than doubles the 2Passet
value, indicative of the long-term growth potential of
theCompany.
• Ithaca has a strong balance sheet and with 2010 cash
flowestimated at US$112 million, allows for a
substantial capitalexpenditure program.
• The Company is looking at additionalopportunities to
accelerate its growth.
• We are initiatingcoverage with a STRONG BUY
recommendation and a target price of$4.00.
.
Full Link:
https://www.union-securities.com/CMResearchFiles/1_95_Ithaca_Initiating_April_20101_FINAL1.pdf