WISR Ltd V.WZR

RE: RE: RE: RE: Between the Lines and in the Sand.

[kaosblues]

It is established that we are on the down slope for all hydrocarbons.  If you are suggesting this isn't true talk to me in 10 years when you are paying 10 to 50 times as much for natural gas. (I think we will be in the $10 range within two years.)  At that point whether you have globalization or not you will still see the easy movement of gas in particular because the infrastructure will be in place and because it will be a scarce resource.   Every passing day will make it more valuable whether on a global OR local basis.   Your argument regarding less consumption because of the end of globalization is a red herring.  That day may come but it will be when we are completely out of hydrocarbons in my estimation. There are simply too many out there that  take the view "don't worry be happy".  Those that are of that  ilk will be getting a rude awakening on this score and from your comments you appear to be one of them.

The Russians are even admitting that their supplies can't last forever.  I also think you have too much faith in what certain elements in the hydrocarbon the industry want you to believe.  You need to dig a bit deeper and take a look at what countries that don' have the resources so to speak (i.e. China, Japan, and to a lesser degree India) are doing in terms of trying to shore up their security of supply.  Indeed instead of simply making long term contracts many of these countries are taking over the companies themselves.  This guarantees them more security of supply and almost complete control over the resource.  Are you aware of how much takeover activity in this sector is going on in the world right now?  I doubt it, for if you really knew you woulnd't be sputtering such nonsense.

The shale gas discoveries may be of some help in terms of lengthening the time line for reserves but even that isn't completely confirmed.  Moreover many  in the industry including Boone Pickens have suggested that we shouldn't put all of our reliance on natural gas either as it will run out eventually also. He has suggested that it be viewed as an immediate stop gap solution only.  He is of course viewed as a crackpot by those in the "don't worry be happy crowd".

Regardless of the above, I am of the opinion that way too much emphasis has been put on these reserves as far as gas goes.  When the developing countries kick in with enormous requirements for hydrocarbons such reserves will look equivalent to a nickel in a hundred thousand dollar piggy bank. In other words such shale gas reserves aren't going to last very long at all.  You need to look at the big picture, rather than a myopic view of such things.

This circles back to the argument about gas in the Middle East.  I find it peculiar that so many on this board are arguing that there is no demand for gas in the Middle East and that Europe isn't looking for security of supply with an eye to this area.  It seems that many are trying diversionary tactics here or simply have their heads so firmly up in the sand that they can't see the forests for the trees.  The simple point is that gas from the Kurdistan region is valuable, and is becoming more valuable every day.  When we saw a 2/3rd drop in the share price of WZR on news of a gas and condensate find, I simply stated that this was illogical. The market is not all knowing and in fact at times is downright ignorant and stupid.