NWM Mining Corporation NWMMF

RE: video

[Bobwins]

I talked with the CEO at a conference in Vancouver last week.  I asked him about the falling share price.  If you look at the share structure, there are 75million warrants out.  He said some of the warrants are expiring soon and some investors are selling to finance the exercise of the warrants.
Here is what I found.  
Q1 09  6 million warrants issued as part of PP priced at .10 and expire 8/4/10
9/30/09 48,012,000 warrants issued as part of PP priced at .08 for 12 months, then increasing to .10 for the next 12 month.  Does have an acceleration clause if share price is above .12 for 20 consecutive days and company notifies holders.  Warrants expire 30 days after these two events.  
10/28/09 18,513,000 warrants issued as part of PP.  Same conditions as 9/30/09 warrants.
All these warrants were issued on a 1 for 1 basis with the stock.  
So we have 6 million warrants that we know expire on 8/4/10 and 66.5 million more that go up in price in Sept/Oct from .08 to .10.    
The warrants that seem to make sense to sell would be the 66 million that are going up in price in October 10.  They can sell the shares for anything around .10 and use the proceeds to buy shares at .08 until October and pocket the difference.  
This is a huge overhang. The 66 million warrants don't expire In October 2010 but the cheaper price could be tempting to allow investors to sell at .10, get their original capital back plus a .04 profit.  They can either use the money to exercise the warrants at .08 and still have a .02 profit/share or keep their original investment + profits and wait for the share price to climb more before exercising.
The huge warrant overhang will likely only be cured by very good news that attracts many new investors to NWM.  
The good news could be commercial production, positive cashflow and substantial adds to reserves at Lluvia and La Jojoba.  With 75 million warrants out there, it's going to take a combination of all to clear out this many warrants.
Of course, if they prove up 1 million oz, there may be a buyout offer significantly above the actual share price, which the warrants may cap.