Possible take-over values
Scan, with all due respect, this SP is vastly underpriced for the opportunity before this company (given its products, science, and potential). Further, I would bet at least a $1 discount is being applied just because of credibility concerns with the current management team.
I realize Cleland's "sum of the parts" discussion of a total enterprise value of $10-$25 is a pipedream.
But, in a normal market, prior to summer/08, the SP was routinely trading in the $4-$5 range. All pessimism and cynicism aside, the company should be worth way more today (based on the milestones they have achieved or are on the cusp of being achieved).
I understand that speculative, high-risk money is still hard to find - so we have to consider current market conditions. $3-$5 is my number (and I admit we are speculating among our ourselves - which is both a waste of time and an interesting discussion) and it is based on a number that the market could justify and that shareholders would accept.
At your number of $2.50, I assure you I am not selling. I may take advantage of the increased liquidity and lighten up on my holdings (and maybe trade some of my lower price shares), but my core investment remains.
At $4-$5, I would be completely out.
You say $2.50. I say $4.00. The difference is $60M. Pocket change for big pharma, if they want the products, pipeline, and technology. The $60M is even less of an issue if the offer includes some shares (rather than cash).
BTW, I am sure the Harlands feel that NTB could achieve $2.50 overnight on its own once they show some profitability, complete the CaPre submission, update on Yoplait or Nestle, or a production expansion by subcontract, etc. So $2.50 is a non-starter for a buy out (Shareholder Rights plan or not).
However, it sure would be nice to see some take-over talk. The SP would definitely start moving north and liquidity would improve.