GREY:BXEFF - Post by User
Post by
greener12345on Jul 21, 2010 12:37pm
700 Views
Post# 17285146
wellington
wellingtoncant post all of it
All values in C$ unless otherwise noted.
Current Price $3.33
Target Price (12-Month) $6.00
Implied Capital Gain 80%
Changes
Old New
Production ‘10E boe/d
CFPS (FD) 2010E
Production ‘11E boe/d
CFPS (FD) 2011E
8,500
.52
11,183
$1.07
Unch.
Unch.
Unch.
Unch.
Recommendation Strong
Buy
Unch.
Target Price $6.00 Unch.
Company Profile
Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. (BXE-T) is an
emerging oil and gas company operating in
Western Canada. Bellatrix, led by a new
management team, stems from the conversion
of True Energy Trust into a corporation
(November 2009). BXE is targeting a ~18+
well net horizontal program on their 85 net
Cardium sections in 2010. The company has
2P reserves of 25.9 mmboe and current
production of ~8,800 boe/d.
Update Reaffirms BXE as a Top Pick with
Current 8,800 boepd (40+% lift since H2’09)
• BXE expected to surpass 10,000 boepd exit rate ~2 months early
Current prodn has grown to ~8,800 boepd from just over ~6,000 boepd inH2’09; est. 35% oil mix by yr-end ‘10 & 54% gas hedged @ $6.56/mcf.
• Activity levels remain high with 4 to 5 rigs running during H2‘10
BXE as “midcap” producer on-track for ~40+% YoY as steady drilling
continues; 8 Cardium & 3 Notikewin wells on prodn & 7 more in progress.
• Prime takeout candidate w/ 450+ dev. locations in Cardium/Notikewin
With 85 net Cardium sections (~75% in West & Central parts of fairway)
& 74 net Notikewin sections, BXE has huge scalability to both plays.
• BXE trading at 0.6x ‘10E NAVPS of $5.64; Reiterate Strong Buy
Trading ~$35,695 per ‘11E flowing boe & 3.8x ‘11E EV/DACF; target is
50/50 split on 2010E NPV/sh & 6.5x multiple on 2011E DACF.