Raffles reply to - Where's the beef?Thank you for challenging my comments, as it will give me the opportunity of explaining the rationale relating to my observations:-
1. Defence against a hostile take over:- The 43-101, based on about three years drilling to 2009 should have revealed the extent of proven / probable reserves. However, with the benefit of this information, which should reveal a three dimensional geometry of the reserves, it may be possible to disproportionately enhance the value of the 43-101, with the inclusion of a minimal level of 2010 drilling. Assuming the foregoing, if the 43-101, based on 2009 drilling only, were to be released, then a hostile low bid could be made. A hostile bid would only be likely when a 43-101 was released. However, If Metanor attempted to defend the company against such a hostile bid, they may not have the time to upgrade the 2009 campaign 43-101 (and this would also appear to be weak), in order to improve the companies bid value prospects. It is arguable that the stock is being [temporarily] devalued by way of 43-101 delays. However, a comprehensive 43-101 (including some key 2010 drill results - which could be targeted to add value to the 2009 results) should more than make up for any short term stock price fall.
2. No need to hold back the 43-101 as it will not impact the existing value of ore.... We have core samples from Barry going back years. Individually these samples give positive signals. However, no one, to my knowledge, has been in a position to give any ball park number of the ounces in the ground, based on published drilling. It appears that the in situ geology linking these results has to be computed by way of 43-101 engineering calculations. Apart from any guesstimates from other geologists, any bid or JV will only have any credibility, when based on an independent 43-101.
3. Confidentiality:- It is accepted that directors have been openly talking of what treasures are in the ground at Barry, but a serious JV partner will not seek to rely on such press talk. However, a JV partner will require access to core samples and also Geostat's calculations in order to structure an initial proposal.
It is a fact that Geostat had all the 2009 drill information in time to produce a [2009] 43-101 for the company be mid June 2010. It is also a fact that when asked in the last week of June, whether the 43-101 may be ready before the end of the month, Ron Perry said it was possible, yet we are now in August. My reading of the information available is that the directors are seeking to add an additional ace in their hand before going public. Investors may complain about delays ...... but the directors may be focussed on the medium term benefit for the company.
Quote from President Harry S Truman - "...... talk softly, but carry a big stick......." [i.e. a 2010 upgraded 43-101].