Phase III - success ratehttps://www.pharmaphorum.com/2010/03/19/what-are-ideas-made-of-phase-iii/
"A 2006 study found that 42% of phase III trials failed between 1990-2002. Fifty percent of these were because the molecule could not be shown to be better than placebo, 30% of the failures were due to safety issues and 20% due to an inability to show efficacy or safety benefits over existing products. These statistics are shocking, even more so when added to the fact that only one in four brands that reach the market go on to break even and repay their investment. While safety issues often need the larger patient numbers seen in phase III before they can be identified, an inability to confirm efficacy over placebo or existing products could have/ should have been signalled by a more effective phase II programme."
... since there are no safety concerns - 30% of the 42%- the probability to fail is around 30% for MCC
... there is no placebo to compare MCC case -20% of the 42% failure - : this cant affect success rate of MCC
... only 20% of the 42% (+- 10%) failed because of efficacy problems vs existing treatment : there are no other treatment in MCC case
So... lets hope again !