RE: Price Targetsaprovocateur: Thanks for the stab at fundamental analysis. Comments as you requested, follow.
1. sb = "should be"? Don't worry, it only took me half a minute to figure out that one. My advice? If you sincerely want people to follow calculations, then comment and possibly correct, make an effort to communicate clearly.
2. Let me see if I understand. You are taking a forward looking value formula, making some assumptions about BCE's EPS growth and then seeing if they fit the formula? Personally I would like to know more about the formula and the built-in assumptions. So far this exercise reminds me of why I eschew more complicated forward looking formulas for easier, measurement-simple, current value formulas. Contemporary value measures and simple extrapolations require less guess-work and fewer strong assumptions.
3. The formula: The per share value of a BCE common share = one-year forward EPS X (8.5 + (2.5 X 5-year EPS growth)) X (4.4/AAA Bond yield ). (Please check the brackets to make sure that my version of the formula corresponds to yours.)
What does 8.5 represent? You hint that it is somehow related to inflation. Oh? Then that is a critical assumption and should be examined in detail as so many private sector pundits have got US inflation rates wrong during the last decade. Moreover, Canada has an inflation targeting system in place that the USA has steadfastly refused to adopt.
4.4 means what?
As you might have gathered, I'm not big on 'black box' treatement of numbers. 'Black box' is a nice way of saying little or no comprehension of the model's workings.