GREY:SDRYF - Post by User
Comment by
gonecodeon Aug 27, 2010 10:37am
343 Views
Post# 17389348
RE: Numbers look good to me. HMMM Stock @ .25
RE: Numbers look good to me. HMMM Stock @ .25Thanks for the numbers ............I welcome other views for sure and you made great points
I see where you are going ..............BUT .............My concern is ....
Even from the sdx website you can see their NETBACKS are $13.28 average and costs around $7.68 a barrel.
Page 22
Now you are correct that costs are split 50/50 and SDX has a cost recovery advantage but your NUMBERS
WOW!!!
Good Luck is all I can say...............
You will see next 1/4 Financial the burn rate and problems coming.. Cash is being burned Faster than THOUGHT.
The expenses are also pointed out ...Page 20.
See they expect to Spend 24 Million this year and 24 Million next and so on for a hit of 80 Million in 4 years.
Very aggressive ............................Problem is ...
THE WELLS.........you state they will have over 5500 BOPD .........In a year
Ok Go with that...............
That is 11,000 BOPD total 1000 from Gemsa and 50% to SDX of the 10,000 with Dana Approx for easy of numbers
So with the average well at less than 200 BOPD so far(do not estimate what they do not have or found please)
They need 50 wells to get there(100 Million $$$).......Sure maybe some side wells and ETC but .......'
That is another 40 million to SDX as the have 11 wells already and NO CASH POSITIVE RESULTS.
Still way under 2000 BOPD
These wells are coming WAY UNDER what they thought. HENCE THE STOCK PRICE .25 cents today
They don't have that kind of $$$$$$$$$$$$ even their half to continue drilling that many wells.....
MORE DEBT AND SHARES REQUIRED
And check those NETBACK numbers..................Where did it say their payout you got the numbers from............
It is not stated...As you stated.....It gets complex with Recovery allowances and such...
Other than the average Netback so be careful ............Costs eat most of that as you can see.
Your numbers assume MUCH...............5500 BOPD next year..............I think not......
Unless they hit some BIG ONES....................But then assupltions again...
Go with what they have now...Best well FRAC is 300 BOPD..........some are under 175 Bopd
Good Luck