@stewartpid"Has anyone looked at the likely cashflow off say 8200 oz / month and say $900 op costs ... should yield over $3 million / month of profit. But what stock price would that suggest as fair value? Anyone play with those numbers and care to share with the board? "
Using your hypothetical scenario, operating cash flow on 98,400koz with $900/oz cash cost and gold at $1270/oz yields $36.4 milion for the year. A 5-8x "forward multiple" should reflect fair value which gives a market capitalization of $182.0 to $291.3M or
.90 to $1.43 per share.
Personally I believe the economics for Croc will be much better than the hypothetical scenario. Should Cosmo come into production next year, the company could produce 120 to 150koz and at cash costs under $800/oz and that is conservative since 150 to 180koz is the company's target. This yields "forward OCF" of $56.4M to $70.5M so the market capitalization should be $282.0M to $564.0M today or $1.39 to $2.77 per share based on my expectations. Also fwiw, I think management will be more careful on their estimates. We would have had 100koz exit rate if Tom's Gully wasn't a hiccup. Cosmo continues to be on track at the moment and management has shown that they can commence production on or ahead of schedule. The only worry I have is cash costs, but I expect < $800/oz..
Croc is expected to annualize 200koz of production in 2012. To spare readers of more calculations, the stock price should be worth $3.70 on fair market value comparison in 15 months time.