GREY:CLLZF - Post by User
Post by
bigtime333on Sep 23, 2010 6:25pm
586 Views
Post# 17486151
the truth is
the truth ismost analysts think that it was to much debt but scotia capitial got 1.79 target , i think this stock will move with market seniment, and oil prices like it always has. lot of people left this stock to look for something better, that's why it's soooo cheap.i put a position into this stock about couple weeks ago at 1.20 thinking about adding to the position, with my kcl , that stock is moving and it will continue to move. i'm happy to see maysteeter commenting on the stock it makes me sleep better at night.
Connacher Oil and Gas Limited (CLL-T)Energy - Oil & Gas - Integrated and E&P 22Sep10: $1.191-Year Target: $1.75
1-Year ROR: 47.1%
Div. (NTM):
.00 Div. (Current):
Yield (Current):
.00
0.0% Risk: High
Rating: 2-Sector Perform
Qtly CFPS (Basic) (Next Release: Nov-10)Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
2008A
.04A
.10A
.15A $-0.02A
.26
2009A $-0.02A
.04A
.03A $-0.01A
.03
2010E
.01A
.02A
.05
.05
.13
2011E
.07
.09
.11
.10
.38
Industry Specific
2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
Oil Price (WTI, US$/bbl) (US$) $99.63 $61.84 $77.00 $80.00
Nat Gas (Nymex, US$/mmBtu) (US$) $8.84 $3.92 $4.85 $5.25
Risked 2P + 2C NAV (Low) $1.88
Risked 2P + 2C NAV (Scotia) $3.17
Risked 2P + 2C NAV (High) $4.33
Capitalization
Shares O/S (M) 429.1
Total Value ($M) 510.6
Float O/S (M) 429.1
Float Value ($M) 510.6
Control Blocks
Widely Held
IBES Estimates
CFPS 2010E
.13
CFPS 2011E
.31
Financial Analysis 05-09 09-11December-31 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Average Growth
Per-Share Data (Basic)
Earnings
.01
.04
.21 $-0.13
.08 $-0.08
.00 -85.0%
Cash Flow
.04
.22
.22
.26
.03
.13
.38 237.9%
Shares O/S (M) 111.8 188.4 202.8 214.6 327.1 429.3 429.1 14.5%
Valuation Ratios
EV/DACF 78.4 17.8 21.0 9.2 20.3 14.0 5.3 29.3
Price/Cash Flow 96.0 15.9 17.2 2.8 38.8 9.0 3.2 34.1
Price/Earnings n.m. 87.3 18.4 n.m. 16.0 n.m. n.m.
EV/mboe/d n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.
Production
Prod-Oil(mbbl/d) 1 1 1 6 7 9 18 58.4%
Prod-Nat Gas (mmcf/d) 1 10 9 13 11 9 8 -17.1%
Prod-Equiv (mboe/d) 1 3 2 9 9 11 20 46.0%
Natural Gas (%) 16% 64% 66% 24% 21% 14% 7% 38%
Free Cash Flow
Cash Flow $4 $40 $45 $55 $13 $57 $162 259.4%
Net Cap Exp $-17 $-175 $-302 $-351 $-314 $-224 $-110
Free Cash Flow $-12 $-135 $-257 $-297 $-301 $-167 $52
Capital Structure
Net Debt $-75 $111 $275 $581 $631 $824 $824 14.3%
Net Debt/Cash Flow 0.0 2.8 6.1 10.6 50.4 14.4 5.1 14.0
Net Debt/(Net Debt+Eq)-141% 23% 36% 55% 48% 56% 56% 5%
Capex/Cash Flow 385.7 435.4 671.4 640.9 2,506.7 392.5 68.0 928.0
Company Profile
Connacher Oil and Gas Limited is a crude oil and natural gas exploration,
development, production and refining company. Its assets include a 100% interest in
the 10,000 bbl/d Great Divide oil sands project, conventional production in Western
Canada and a 9,500 bbl/d refinery located in Great Falls, Montana. Additionally,
Connacher owns 26 percent of Petrolifera Petroleum Limited, a publicly-traded
company listed on the TSX under the symbol PDP.
Business Mix (Based on revenues unless otherwise noted)
Production: 76% Crude, 24% Natural Gas
Performance Drivers
Commodity Prices, Exchange Rate, Crack Spreads
Comparable Companies (TSX unless otherwise noted)
UTS, OPC
.Recent Update Text as of 11AUG10 Connacher reported Q2/10 CFPS of
.02, below our estimate of
.04 and
.consensus of
.03. Production for the quarter was 8.66 Mboe/d, well below our estimate of 11Mboe/d. The miss in production was due to lower-than-expected bitumen
production of 6.2 Mbbl/d at Pod One (vs. our estimate of 8.5 Mbbl/d), caused by
pump failures, six power outages, and a turnaround in May (originally scheduled
in 2H/2010). The company subsequently reduced 2010 production guidance by 9% to
.11.5 Mboe/d. Cash flow was boosted by the downstream on the back of strong asphalt demand.The company has 400 Mbbl in agreements to sell asphalt at $100/bbl and, coupled
.with a rebound in production, should reflect in Q3 results. While ESP installation continues at Pod One, the company will focus onstabilizing SAGD operations as Algar ramps up to capacity and the remaining two
.wells at Pod One are brought online. We continue to rate Connacher 2-Sector Perform.
Mark Polak, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada)
mark_polak@scotiacapital.com / (403) 213-7349