Natcore Technology Inc NTCXF

RE: RE: RE: RE: ROI

[ck123]

Glad to see you came back to dorkhouse.  You insult all the posters here, by referring to it as dorkhouse, but still find it necessary to read their posts to correct them I take it.  Also, becuase you are ignorant of facts doesn't mean others are.

My responses puzzles you??   I have only responded to your posts few times.  The second last one was to ask you to put someone on ignore.  If that post puzzled you the reason why I reminded you of the ignore button was because I was tired of reading the series of useless posts that you were making that day as I am sure others were.  I hope that clears it up for you. 

My original ROI post was referring the ROI that solar panel producers could possibly expect by using the LPD AR.  This was based on information from the Natcore website.  Someone asked it they thought that current manufacturers would dump their existing CVD furances in order to take on the LPD equipment and so I discussed what ROI they could expect.  I did acknowledge that it hinges on the lower temperature and the ability of a thinner production panel.   The last post regarding the ROI that China must have forseen before dropping $2.5 million for a 45% interest so that they could be part of the equipment development/sale of equipment/sale of chemicals.   They are taking a minor interest and fronting 80% of the money.  Those were the terms right?    Does it puzzle you that the partners in the JV would have done extensive DD before proceeding into this type of agreement.  The JV did not form over night.  There are alternatives, including other  low temperature AR process, for the Chinese to consider but something compelled them to take on the majority of the risk for a non-controlling interest in an American firm.   Again do you think it would be reasonable that they saw a ROI in the near future?  

The fact is, any of the available AR processes would add to the revenues of a silicon panel producer.  It effectively converts a 100MW producer into a 106MW producer. The competition estimates by 2015 50% of solar producers will incorporate an AR process into production & that  a 100MW producer can gain $5-10 million in profits/year based on the improved efficiency.  Its not chump change.

So again why did China chose Natcore and not any other technology?   The LPD apparently has a distinct advantage over CVD  being that it is low temperature - not toxic and not as energy intensive.  Cheaper to run and reduced environmental concerns.  The concept that a lower temperature process can reduce the silicon requirement is shared by other producers of manufacturing equipment but I will leave that to speculation.

Your opinion is that "if they really were on to something" shouldn't the stock price be $X.XX by now shouldn't it be higher than it was x months ago.   It must be too good to be true.... right, otherwise everyone and their barber would be invested in it fully.      The stock has flourished for those who got in between Nov-March and the stock has floundered for those who came late in run-ups.   The volatility has been great for the traders. Unfortunately part of the run-ups do come from market generated hype.  The hype of websites/mailing lists that do "the next 10-bagger" type promotions... followed by a prompt sell-off that takes place over 2 weeks.    Some of the posters here belong to groups that provide "tips" to theirfollowers about the next big thing.  The organizers complete theirsell-off after pump and move on to their next stock.    If you look at the charts and look at the timing of the promotions you can see why/how the stock ran up to $1.55 in a few weeks period.   The promotion adds to the volatility that you see.  After that $1.55 pull-back, you complained about the degree of retracments and said something must be wrong with the company and that a finance must be in the works. The stock is very volatile and typically low volume(0.12% of total outstanding shares typically)... there are 20-30 small trades on a typical day.   I wouldn't focus on statistical analysis, colloquially referred to as  tea leaves, in this situation but to each their own and rely on what you must if it seems logical to you.   The quality of an analysis depends on the quality of the sample and the subject to the interpreter. 

As for my posts being only one sided - no one really ever challenges meon the technical aspects of my posts.  If you want me to verify where Iget my information from I will and can. Most of it is basic physics. I know that some of the posters here would quickly put me in my place if my posts were off-side. I did acknowlege in my previous posts that the most gains from the LPD AR would be from thinner panels being able to be put through - yes, I agree the company does need to deliver on this aspect or the only gains  from the process is that it is lower temperature/environmentally friendly compared to current processes which are still significant but might not be as compelling. 

I agree it would be nice to know how Natcore China will be dealing with Chuangke and how revenues will flow into Natcore once the JV is in production. Chuankge has enough polysilicon production for over 100MW of solar production based on current methods.  The China JV took at least 8 months to finalize and is moving forward. I would expect that Natcore China would need to be in production/cusp of production before other AR agreements are arranged as they have the five year exlusive right to develop and sell equipment worldwide.  So here we are about ~100 days after the JV finalization and we are waiting for more information.   I understand that you have blue-balls/blue-walls because

Place me on ignore if you don't like what I have to say but please don't mistake me for being ignorant.