OPC 79 cents, PDP 76 cents3 cent difference. Closest yet. PDP should pass OPC any day now.
Regarding value vs price PDP and CMT have great value too, and that value will likely go to shareholders. OPC has to successfully increase their production before their value is definitely determined to go to shareholders. Right now a significant discount has to be applied to their stock because that value could go to bondholders. The investors who lent $400M didn't lend to help shareholders out. They lent because they will either get great cash returns or top priority on a good asset.
I disagree with the assessment that CMT will have cash flow issues. They are cash positive right now and are hedged at gas prices varying between $4.20-$7.00. 15% of their revenues come from oil from their Q2 and that probably increased as oil has leaped and nat gas has tanked since then. I would not be in CMT if our analysis indicated they had cash flow issues. They will have a negative net income likely for now through 2011, but that would result in no more than 50 cent share value loss in total for a company with proven and probable reserves worth $4.60. OPC could have an estimate that is higher, but that does not help if they are losing
.50-$1 every quarter then paid back to bondholders with interest on future revenues in the best case scenario where they remain solvent. Its $50M in interest in Q2 for OPC, and more now. Just on interest alone, they are certain to lose $1 per share from now to the end of next year. CMT's interest payment is 20% of that amount.
PDP's business is Argentine production, Colombian exploration/near production and Peruvian long-term exploration oil and gas. The gas market in Colombia is hot right now and PDP will have at least one of their wells up and running on Brillante last next year, with the possibility of many more. They are currently trying to reorganize the company to focus on its exploration potential by selling the Argentine assets or arranging a farm out deal on Peru. Either activity will result in a significant price increase as either will show to the market that they have enough money to bring Peru to production rather than just sitting on land titles forever.