RE: RE: Teck buy in optionIt's not the simple act of Tck buying back in that will drive the price. It's the new report on the overall size of the formation, some of which is not included in the buy back procedure. It's the fact that the feasability is coming out late December or January and will include updated metals pricing, updated drilling of anomolies, updated costs because of powerlines, etc.
In addition CUU wants a buyout from someone. Typical buyouts are 5-10% of recoverable metal value plus cash less debt. The 5-10 range takes into consideration costs of developing, political issues, etc. Assume CUU owns 25% of this mine at 2007 pre-feasablility report and calculate their value from there. I come out with a total metal value of just over 8 billion owned by Copper Fox. 5-10% of metal is 400-800 million causing a buyout price of $1.50-$3.00. Now add in that the mine could be 2X wider and 4X deeper. Now add in that some of the 2X wider is 100% copper fox property and not subject to back in. They have minimal debt, and the 200 million goes directly to funding the mine for whoever buys copper fox plus TCK would still have to arrange financing for that buyer. Basically the buyer gets 25% of a mine for the cost of Copper Fox with minimal other foot work needed ever. TCK does everything.
I calculate a buyout minimum of $3 because of all these extras and as high as $17 assuming a mine that is 8X larger. I expect it will be about $5 a share when it's all said and done, assuming the size is increased, the mine is feasable, the natives are ok, the environmental report is ok etc.... This is where the risk is, but within 3 months we will know.
I bought another 100 thousand shares... Now sitting at 201 thousand, paid of my cars and expect this to go 3-4X bigger from here before the feasability.