Titanium commercial aviation demandMonday 4 October 2010
Titanium 2010: Titanium demand in commercial aviation to exceed 100mln lb by 2012 - RTI
ORLANDO(Metal-Pages) 04-Oct-10. Demand for titanium in commercial aviation ispulling out of a trough, supported by a backlog of aircraft orders,Dawne Hickton, President of RTI International Metal, one of the leadingtitanium suppliers to major aircraft programmes told delegates at theInternational Titanium Association's 26th annual conference in Orlando.
"In 2010 we expect demand for titanium to approach 60 million pounds for commercial airplanes," Hickton said. "We expect that 2010second half will be pretty strong," she added, forecasting that demandfor titanium from the sector next year will reach 90 million lb, andexceed 100 million lb per year from 2012.
Astrong backlog of aircraft orders is underpinning the gradual recoveryin the market, after the traumatic period that began in October 2008."Even in a recession the backlog is getting us through," Hicktoncommented. "We reckon we hit the bottom and we are starting to look up."The current backlog in commercial aviation stands at 6 years ofproduction, according to RTI. This includes 860 aircraft on order in the787 Dreamliner programme, 324 firm orders for the Airbus A830 andorders for the A350 XWB which is expected to start being delivered in2012. Altogether, according to RTI, this backlog represents 635 millionpounds of titanium metal.
Ittakes 25,000 lb of titanium buy weight to make a 787, and both the A380and the A350 are large consumers of titanium. At the same time, as wellas Airbus and Boeing booking an estimated excess 900 planes in arecession year, research and development has also continued to moveforward. "We will see that the mill products of yesterdays are the newerproducts of today," Hickton commented. That includes developments inmore efficient use of titanium, such as near net shape castings,forgings and other types of near-net or net shape parts.
USdemand alone for titanium in commercial aviation is expected to grow by8-10% each year in 2011 and 2012 from an estimated 32,000-35,000 tonestoday to more than 39,000 tonnes in 2012.
Atthe same time, established market leaders Boeing and Airbus are facingcompetition from new entrants such as Canada's Bombardier with itsC-series and China's new jet, Comac 919 which is due to enter productionin 2014. In turn, Bombardier and Brazil's Embraer are facing growingcompetition in regional jets from Japan (i.e. Mitsubishi) and Russia(i.e. Sukhoi Superjet).
Accordingto RTI's estimates, the world fleet though both replacement andacquisition of new aircraft is set to double over the coming decade from18,000 planes in 2009 to 36,000 in 2029.
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