Copy of a post by Dictum de dicto fm iii.ukI read the following post over at the interactive investor UK site and could not add any mnore than what DDD says.
So with all due creits here is a copy/paste of DDD's post.
Note current exchange: 1 UK pence = CDN
.0161 so 30p equals Cdn
.48
(Echg link:
https://www.xe.com/ucc/convert.cgi?Amount=.01&From=GBP&To=CAD&image.x=44&image.y=10)
-----------------------------------
I'm back, and my personal torment also seems over - don't ask, it involves Imodium.....
If you think this is a ramp, then stop here.
If you want to see my argument then read on....
I have been reflecting on the AGQ and silver situation over the past week and have come to the conclusion that 30p is a lot closer than previously thought. My original assumptions were based on believing that it would take at least one quarter's production results to push the price up to 30p. Events, however, have moved on with macro-economic forces taking precedence. The recent moves by the Bank of Japan and the language being expressed by the BOE and Fed on QE have recently hit the precious metals markets like an express train. Gold and silver have reacted accordingly.
Silver in particular is showing signs of advancing towards a ratio of 50:1 in the relatively short term, propelled by the unravelling of the cumulative short positions held by our 'friends', JPM and GS.
A number of gold and silver experts have in recent months started to predict gold at $1,500 and silver at $30 by the end of the year. It is this 50:1 ratio that I am most interested in at this time, an attainable pause on silver's longer term trek towards its long term average of 31, and then possibly 16.
https://www.silver-info.com/gold-silver-ratio.htm
At the micro level, we have AGQ, a still massively undervalued equity with potential way beyond its current declared resources.
So what factors will drive up the price in the next few weeks/months?
1) The price of silver is currently $23.22. It's easy to see $25 over the next few weeks and the mooted $30 by December 31st is clearly attainable.
25/23.33 x 19.62(mid) would deliver a price of circa 21p.
30/23.33 x 19.62(mid) would deliver a price of circa 25.25p.
And AGQ would not have to to anything for that..
2) Production. There is a strong argument to suggest that AGQ is still being held back by an 'official' confirmation of production. The market wants to see those wagons rolling, full of concentrate. I don't expect a massive spike on this but I would expect some consolidatory moves within the 20 - 25p range following this announcement. My sense is that we will get the really serious ii interest when we get the first quarter's results. It's this that will push it that little bit further, into the next trading range.
3) AGQ is still undervalued relative to its peers
I'm not sure if this has been posted in the last week but the last time I posted the link (maybe ten days ago), AGQ's value was shown as C
.59.
It's now C
.72!
https://www.goldminerpulse.com/blogs/arian-silver-valuation.php
In other words AGQ's market value as a producer should actually be 44.5p!
Now I know that the market is slow but this is plain crazy. Arian are possibly days away from rolling wagons are are valued by the market at less than 50% of its producing peer group!
So we basically have three key factors, which together weave an extremely strong buy story: macro-economic, events or news driven and fundamental value based.
On the face of it 30p looks like too much to expect given a sub-20p base, but when you study the facts it looks tame. If I really wanted to ramp I would declare 44.5p next week, but we all know that markets don't work that way.
Follow the basic rule of investing - RUN WITH THE WINNERS!
ddd