RE: RE: RE: abandon ship!Some headwinds:
In the NE, some producers can't make money at $5 or even $8. They can only take a loss for so long before having to open up wells just to make payments. I think we are at that point of survival. Only the majors can afford to shut-in wells, but not before cranking production for the first year (eg. CHK) The majority of wells (90%) aren't even brought on-line. There will be an avalanche of production coming when NG prices recover, and thereby keeping the NYMEX price low this winter.
There could be some interruption in imports which could help and the almanac predicts a colder winter in the NE. Drilling has also slowed - I believe we've peaked and should see some improvement a year out.
Near term prices will probably drop, and prices further out could stay the same or increase, but as they hit the front months drop as well. HNU really is not an investment in NG for this reason. I day-trade this once in a while, but very hard to make money as long term trend of this ETF is down.