BIPVhttps://www.design-buildsolar.com/news/bipv_market_set_to_soar_says_pike_research/
An interesting read on the BIPV market that may be a gold mine for SET and their parallel technology. Dow is coming out in 2011 with mass production of its' solar integrated shingles which make total sense for home solar rather than panels IMHO. Sunergy also has a blurb on this site in regards to the Athens Mall. BIPV is very much in.
I don't believe that panels manufacturers is the place for investment money. Too many being churned out and too much competition. I think that is one reason Bosch is hesitant. Every one is making panels and one panel is pretty much the same as another within the same categories. The really good technology has been licenced out to numerous manufacturers. A 'dime a dozen'.
Things are changing so rapidly in the solar field but there will be a market for inverters and a shortage thereof for some time whether it be for solar panels or BIPV especially parallel inverters which seem to be gaining a lot of recognition. Every inverter company is having the same problem with demand vs availability.
As far as forecasting the future SP, the best of analysts cannot forcast the SP of a stock to any degree of accuracy. One can only guess. Otherwise we'd all be multi millionaires.
There are so many variables. The ability to finance large scale production through sales. I think that is the largest obstacle SET faces. They have all the market they can handle in my opinion. They are having to limit customers. Things such as the economic conditions in the world. The advancements in technology. The enhancement of or removal of solar incentives. The continued government support and world push for green energy, also dependant to a great degree on the economic situation. Profit margin and competition enter into it. Government assistance to relieve financial stress plays a big part.
One can only guess. E.G. if SET does $20 million in sales next year which I think is conservative, the commonly applied 4 x earnings formula with 250,000,000 shares (guess-outstanding shares at present are 164,000,000) fully diluted taken into account, the SP would feasibly be .32. They can very conceivably do twice that amount with the escalating markets which would then reflect a SP of .64.
M.C. came out with a guestimate that SET could very well attain $100 million in sales in 2012. While very optimistic and having to withdraw that statement by order of the Securities authorities (speculation not based on present sales), it is not beyond the realm of possibility which then puts the SP at $1.60. Actually, I would be quite happy, in fact ecstatic, with a $1.50 party rather than the $2 party we were so hoping for.
Even that figure could be conservative if all goes well. How about $200 million in sales in 2012. A SP of $3.40? A buy out? What is the technology worth? Quite a bit if the Brand is well established and proven. M.C. about 2 1/2 years ago predicted, in a radio interview, that the company would be taken out within 24-36 months. Again speculation.
If a new technology comes out, SET is a one trick pony and your SP is zilch. Egads!
I don't think we are any better off guessing. Just hoping as we do with every other stock that is speculative. TIM is a perfect example. How about RIM? Who would have thought BMO would be $28 a year or so ago with a dividend of a 28% return and then quickly more than doubled again? Ah, to turn back the clock! No analyst pegged that one and it didn't stay low very long. We'd all be very wealthy if we only 'knew'.
After 10 years of investing in this company, I haven't a clue. Only optimism based on the company's phenomenal achievements over the past year and faith in the management and employees' ability to reach their destination on very bumpy roads.
Meanwhile GLTA on your decisions.