RE: RE: disappointing..."the rising oil price has not been due to changes in oil’s fundamentallike “demands” or “shortages”, rather as a safe-haven against therapidly declining “dollar”.
I understand how some people believe that oil might be a "safe haven" investment but it really isn't. Not for you and me at any rate because to really invest in "oil" as a hedge against a future event, one would need to store it and you and I certainly can't do that. Even hedge funds don't trade in oil but rather paper futures (much easier to store).
You touched on a very important point. You are correct that the current oil price has less to do with supply and demand dynamics than with the declining value of the US dollar but you went off course with your assumption that investors are only looking for companies with strong balance sheets. In a hyperinflation event, it is the asset itself that is valuable regardless of the company, the location, the politics, etc, etc.
Lets say you have $10k in the bank and you got inside information that the US dollar was going to collapse 3 days from now to worthless. You consider the consequence of a collapsed US dollar and you plan for the days and weeks ahead. You conclude, rightly, that commodities are going to go through the roof in the coming upheaval. Oil could be $200 a barrel. Diesel fuel $10 a gallon. Bread, because of sky-rocketing grain prices could be $8 - $9 a loaf. Fresh fruit and vegetables, because of fuel cost would sky-rocket as well.
So being a smart person, you take your debit card in hand and you head to the local market and you buy-up all the Nutrigrain bars, Coke Zero and good Coruba rum you can get your hands on cause you know those are the staples of life and you are going to need them. Prudently, you spend the money that you know will depreciate on supplies for the future that are inherently valuable to you.
Obviously, if you were a nation and you had this same information, you might conduct yourself a little differently. You might by-pass the Rum isle and instead lay-off a few depreciating billions from your foreign reserves on something to stick in your basement, also for the days, weeks, and years ahead. China & India will continue to need raw resources to continue to grow. They will gladly pass-off increasingly worthless US currency to buy inherently valuable stores of goods and materials for the future.
The world is heading for a hyper-inflationary event. Everyone with ears and eyes knows this to be true. China has almost a trillion US dollars in their basement that they are absolutely convinced will become vastly less valuable in the coming event. They are hunting for hard assets right this minute! They don't care whether there is a steam plant or a tailings pond or dead ducks or a ring of sweating Green-Peacers around the HQ of the current owner. All they see is 600 million barrels of bitumen that will do them very nicely between now and 2060 and they would gladly trade their worthless American chits for it.
And after they pay us handsomely for our mighty asset, I only hope the price of Nutrigrain Bars and Coruba Rum hasn't already run up as well!