The announced takeover on Monday of Potash One Inc. is a potential game-changer for its rivals in the junior potash sector.
According to Wellington West Capital Markets analyst Robert Winslow, this deal lifts the scarcity value for the remaining players.
“There is one less reasonably well advanced potash junior from which potential acquirers can choose,” he wrote in a note to clients. “For that reason, we re-rate all the junior potash stocks we cover with a positive bias.”
He raised his price targets on Western Potash Corp. (to $1.05 a share from 80¢), Allana Potash Corp. (to $1.15 a share from $1.00), and IC Potash Corp. (to $1.50 a share from $1.35).
In addition, Mr. Winslow wrote that the Potash One deal demonstrates that potash fertilizer is of “significant strategic importance,” and that the high costs to build a greenfield mine make partnering (or outright acquisition) a likely exit strategy.
His one caveat is that future deals could take a long time to come to fruition. He believes that Potash One has been seeking partners since 2008, and its project is more advanced than those of other potash juniors, especially in Saskatchewan.