RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: life on a shoe stringUnlike the four previous PP's by CS I don't expect these new shares to quickly find their way into the market. I also don't believe that you or any of the other investors are counting on getting a check from Bryden.
Over the past 30 days only 4m shares have traded. Compare that to the 35m that traded in 4 days last May at the time of the NCI's second test results. This low volume suggests that there is little interest in the stock. As others have pointed out right now and into December this stock is a candidate for tax losses. An increase in volume at this time may indicate a personal interest. So even with good news at this time, such as the drug having no toxicity, the price would struggle.
With the latest fs my concern right now is how much is in the kitty. Quite frankly dilution. The next batch of warrants come due in June and there isn't enough in the bank account to get us there. The burn rate is about 300k a month and with going it alone one can expect that to increase once the decision is made on which cancer line to use for the FDA application. Considering what Bob and Ken had to say during the phone conference and the NR in October my guess would be seeing new life in this stock and a considerable spike sometime in the first quarter of next year.
From the October NR
For the fourth quarter, the clinical development program will focus on the selection of the optimal cancer target for initial human testing, based on a determination of the optimal delivery mechanism for GAP-107B8 for reaching the target cancer at safe and effective dose levels. To achieve this, a series of testing and method development activities will be carried out internally and with the company's collaborators. Specific test programs expected to be commenced during the fourth quarter include:
- Continuous-infusion pharmacokinetics studies in rats currently under way at Lab Research in Montreal;
- Human melanoma and sarcoma cancers in a mouse model in collaboration with Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York;
- Human ovarian cancers in a mouse model at the Ottawa Hospital Research Institute in Ottawa;
- Human bladder cancers in a mouse model using a novel method of delivery, in conjunction with collaborators to be announced;
- Development of various assays at PharmaGap to guide the design and delivery of the clinical development program.
Testing programs during the remainder of 2010 will provide data requested by pharma-licensing contacts. The company will be in a position to continue and to advance discussions aimed at licensing of the product during the course of undertaking phase 1 and phase 2 clinical trials. The company's intention is to maintain the ability to proceed through and complete phase 2 clinical trials in order to drive the value of a licensing transaction to the highest level possible. However, earlier licensing will be accepted if risk-adjusted valuation targets are met.