RE: VST versus LFDI know from VST presentation that the chances of hitting oil is 17%.
From the initial resource assessment from Vast:
"6) While the above quantities have not been adjusted for risk, AJM has assigned reserves to 7 formations. The Cretaceous which currently contains 3 target reservoirs has been estimated to have an average chance of success of 30%. The Jurassic currently contains 3 target reservoirs and has been estimated to have an average success chance of 21% and the Triassic has 1 target reservoir with an estimated chance of success of 17%."
And from the November 12th NR:
"As previously reported, the well encountered a 64 meter thick Aalijii zone, potentially containing light oil. Testing on this zone and other prospective zones of interest will commence after reaching total depth and upon completion of the drilling operations."
So they have already hit a 63m (or 64m) zone which probably is a light oil zone. In the next 3 targets there is a 30% chance of success IN EACH ZONE. This means the chances of at least one out of the three zones containing hydrocarbons (hopefully oil) is 64.7%.
So vast has probably already hit oil and have a 64.7% chance of finding another hydrocarbon zone. A far cry from your 17% chance. The lower 4 targets may be too deep to drill this time, If all 7 targets could be drilled, the chances of hitting in at least one more zone is 86%