GREY:LSTMF - Post by User
Comment by
JohnDDon Nov 25, 2010 1:32pm
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Post# 17757638
RE: RE: Next quarters
RE: RE: Next quartersWhen2buy, re your suggestion to sell to CPG.
An interesting analysis would be to look at the value of the company assuming they sold off the bakken assets to CPG and the Cardium assets to major Cardium player based on today's market prices for producing assets and land. Is the liquidation value of the company worth more or less than today's stock price? Very much an academic exercise since Petrobank would have to agree, but might make us feel better if the liquation value is higher than the stock price.
From technical chart perspective the stock has been trading in a range of 20 - 24 for the las 6 mnths. Yes production has been falling, but the last reduction was expected and understandable given road bans in Alberta. Although the last new release was not great it was not a disaster either. My own view is that the stock will eventually move back into a 20 - 24 trading range.
There is minimal risk associated with bringing on the wells that have been drilled but not yet tied in. I would really be concerned if they started talking about higher decline rates on individual wells and lower reserves. We in fact heard that they expect to increase reserves and the production profiles on the Cardium wells are improving with better well completion techniques.
John