Thanks solarGood pro & con synopsis.
----------Original Message Posted 11/26/2010 7:00:57 PM----------
you folks have been correct about this decline from $5 to below 4, however that is old news. Do you know feel PMT is still going lower? going sideways? or a good value and a buy here? Quit with the negative energy and offering nothing but your gloating and negativity. If you have a reason for a bearish outlook state it.
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If I knew where PMT was going for sure, I would be rich. That being said I will give my pros and cons.
Pros:
- winter is effectively here, we had our first NG draw this week and I expect more to follow
- on the daily and weekly charts, PMT is at oversold levels
- CEO bought more shares on the open market
- traders should be push up price of NG (futures anyways)
- dividend yield is more sustainable
- around mid-December is when year-end market pumps start
Cons:
- no substantial production in NG liquids or oil (NG liquids sell for 50 to 75% price of crude???)
- general markets are weak due to US/Euro/China issues
- tax loss selling possibly going on still
- significant resistance levels for PMT to overcome on the charts
- with reduced dividends, earnings (if any) become more important
- share price below $5 precludes funds from owning PMT???
- PMT depends on AECO spot price and not Henry Hub spot price (AECO still below $4)
Like I said in an earlier post, the downside for PMT should be limited, but not impossible. That being said, the market should be anticipating higher prices going forward in advance. So far that hasn't happened. Not sure why.
One technical area I am hoping PMT will retest in the year end pump (if it happens at all) is $4.80 to $5. There would be a lot of trapped longs in that range. That being said, PMT could also technically go lower from here to $3.50-$3.60 for whatever reason.