Here are the calculationsBelow is my post on this board from Nov 2. In this post I explain how I am looking for 3 equally spaced peaks leading up to the crash. Peak number 1 was Oct 13th. Peak #2 was Nov 5. Peak #2 is 17 trading days from peak #1.
Peak #3 was Friday/Today - both the same. That is 19 trading days between peak #2 and peak #3. Nov 9 and Nov 5 were a double top, and if I avg those tops, then we get exactly 18 trading days between peak #1 and #2 and peak #2 and #3.
My model shows equal spacing between the peaks as I explained on Nov 2 and voila! Sometimes it amazes me how the mkt works.
I also think we are tracing out the following pattern:
https://thepatternsite.com/3peaksdome.html
On this pattern:
#1 is July 1, 2010
#10-14 would be the Aug bottom
#23 is Nov 5
We are at #25
From my work #26 may be 1095 S&P, #27 may be 1145 S&P, #28 may be around 1010 S&P according to this pattern. What is interesting is that my model shows a lower high on the way down just like this pattern (which could be #27).
So basically I think according to this pattern and my model we can see the S&P lose about 20% or 215 S&P points in the near term. Two 10% sudden drops for the mkt with a decent bounce in between....
I see this as just the start of the decline for years to come (although I expect it to get choppier).
SC
Nov 2nd, 2010
What makes this topping process for mkts tricky is the slow back and fill process - we're 2 months into it now! Patience is key! This topping process is unfolding slowly and why would we expect anything differently since this is a major turning point? When the mkt is ready to crash most won't believe it.
We're getting numerous consolidation days followed by major whipsaws. By my model we are still approaching the 2nd mkt top of my pattern. The first top was Oct 13th. Each top will be evenly spaced so once the 2nd top is in, then I can calculate when we should see the third top. Once the third top (lower high for financials) is in, then the mkts crash within days. It is not a 1987 style crash though but a steady drop for months and years.
We will see some more choppy consolidation now. I've seen enough for confirmation now that the financials are setting up for a major spike up and short squeeze, but then collapse soon after. What is happening now is that more investors are seeing what looks like weakness in the financials over the last number of weeks. It is the same situation as the end of Aug, and same setup for a major short squeeze. The difference though is that rather than starting the rally, this squeeze will end the rally!
Myself, my short term strategy is to wait for the optimal low risk entry for FAS. Once the financials run then I'll switch back into FAZ. FAZ really is the one to focus on from this point though to prepare for the big picture, and I am reluctant to even mention FAS. Rather than playing with FAS, many may rather wait for a nice entry in FAZ instead. That is the more conservative strategy.
SC