We have analyzed the potential impacts of catalysts weexpect to occur from now through year-end 2011 for our coverage of International
E&Ps. We anticipate events over the coming 12 months that could increase our
Fully-risked NAVPS estimates by approximately 100% on average. Canacol
Energy Ltd. (CNE-V), C&C Energia and Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE-T) all
stand out as likely to report on events over the next year that could increase our
target prices by 140% or more, due to planned exploration drilling in Colombia,
Guyana and Peru. However, all of these exploration campaigns would likely result
in material share price reductions in the case of disappointing results, and we note
a correlation between stocks with large near-term catalysts and relatively full
valuation. Our analysis suggests that the market is paying a premium for catalysts;
investors that want exposure therefore typically either need to get in early or pay
up.