A different perspective"Other than Potash One, ICP may be the only junior with a 43-101, at least a relatively recent one"
That is one very uneducated statement. Maybe a case of someone being overly leveraged to a single equity. I assume most would research all the players in this small sector before putting their capital to work, but obviously I've been proven wrong.
ICP is a great gamble, but a 43-101 really doesn't move them ahead of anyone. Remember, they are not exploring for, or finding Potash...they hope they have a process to make specialty potash (SOP) from what was thought of as useless Polyhalite. The prize here isn't how much Polyhalite they have anymore (we already knew through USGS reports there was/is a lot of it), it's if they have figured out how to make SOP out of Polyhalite, and if so, can they do it economically, and if so, can they remove any reasonable doubt. So they do up a thesis that it can be done using a simple method....thats great...they plug in some perfect world numbers which include perfect world input costs that assume a perfect SOP extraction and production, and claim perfect low price production. Of course, every mining junior on the planet does the same thing, so it's meaningless until you move forward. Moving forward requires them to build a pilot plant, produce in small quantities for testing, apply the tested producted to crops, and hope that all these steps and in between go off without a hitch. If they can do that, they're off to the races. The most obvious flaw in what I've read comes from the water input source(s). Read up on the scarcity of water in NM. Read ICP's websites on where people get water from in NM. This is a key factor in their production process which is not quantified in the reports. Of course, the other major input cost is energy. What source of fuel do they expect to use for the plant? The reactor will require huge energy input costs. The best option would be Natural gas. So they'd need to build a pipeline to tie in from a mainline system as feedstock. Regulatory processes in this regard are difficult at best (especially now), so you need to look to pellets or coal...neither of which given the transport, stockpiling, and environmental concerns would make a great option. Then there's the electricity input costs. This is less of a concern, but depending on how you buy that power in fixed long-term contracts or otherwise, cannot be properly forecast into any model with any reasonable amount of accuracy.
Lots of ifs here, I'm afraid. I did buy some of it though, as it's yet another vehicle to ride sector momentum on, and should make me a nice tidy profit. Just don't get burned thinking there is any feasable reason they do anything beyond churning some profit for us momo riders. The fact that they are essentially more closely akin to a drug company attempting to create and develop a new drug in an unproven economical manner than an explorer searching for an established wealth in the ground mineral should allow you to balance it in your portfolio accordingly. Like I said, I bought some as I think it can push to approx. $1.50 within Q1/11 on industry momentum, which I feel will accelerate through Q1/Q2/11. Happy holidays all!