RE: Profit comparisonHey pipe i really like thats stock u posted looke like a winner so far im looking into everything i can find on it right now ,and have a good friend thats pretty smart with trading these specs ,but so far so good bud thanks
----------Original Message Posted 12/12/2010 1:07:45 PM----------
haggy-Your analysis is flawed on many levels. I'm not defending Break, and I have chosen to buy and hold this stock, same as you, although I might add some shares if it goes below .12.
This is a Venture Exchange holding. The vast majority of these companies never amount to anything. Yet you are talking about it as if it were a sure thing. If it were a sure thing, it would be trading for a much higher multiple for the gold in the ground. There are various ways to protect yourself against this micro cap risk. I'm using small position size, but another way would be to sell into strength.
You're also assuming the gold bull market will go on for a long time. I think it will too, but we really don't know.
Go to stockcharts.com and put in the symbol $gold:$hui, and look at 3 years (max available) of daily prices. Over the last three years, gold bullion which has absolutely no risk associated with its ownership, has outperformed mid cap unhedged gold stocks. That tells me that there is a lot of fear of full blown systemic collapse of the financial system. Otherwise, gold stocks would be outperforming gold at least 2:1, if the only thing in play was inflation fears.
Put in the symbol $silver:$hui, and you will see that the white metal is out performing pm stocks by an even wider margin.
I mentioned ape.v, becasue it is doing what you and I hope that axm.v will do. I think the reason it is going up is that it has been undervalued for being in Bolivia, which has very high mining taxes. But I think there is a new perception that Bolivia will relax their anti-mining stance and avoid any new taxes in order to encourage foreign capital investment.
So ape.v is going up, not because Venture stocks are any less risky, but rather because the country risk associated with Bolivia has diminished somewhat, and because it is a silver explorer, which is the metal in play right now. imho, pipe