PINL:NEPTF - Post by User
Post by
gwrbion Dec 15, 2010 9:07pm
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Post# 17853315
Aren't you glad you paid attention in math class?
Aren't you glad you paid attention in math class?
I was just reading Hugh's latest letter which is devoted mostly to the NTB story. He references the Dundee analyst report and an estimated one year out value of $4.15 for Neptune.
They (Hugh and Dundee) reference the current NKO business being worth $60M or $1.35/share on its own. However, I'd argue in the old days (pre-2008) the market looked forward and valued based on expected year 2-3 earnings, with forecasted revenues of $20M-$30M and EBITDA's of $5M-10M, the NKO business should be trading at a much higher multiple (like 20 times EBITDA, or $100M-$200M, or $2.5 to $5 per share).
Next, they estimate a value of Acasti at $200M once clinical trials are completed (in 12-15 mths). Since NTB owns 60% of Acasti, that would accrue $120M of the Acasti value to NTB's shares. There is a slight error in Hugh and Dundee's math. The $120M for Acasti plus the $60M for NKO represents $180M in value to NTB. Based on 44.4M shares, represents $4.05/share.
But the point not discussed in the Dundee report, is that based on that same valuation, Acasti they say will be worth $200M. Well for the sorry souls that have held on to their worthless Acasti shares and exercised their worthless warrants last month, works out to a pretty darn good return on their investment, when Acasti finally is listed in the coming weeks. With all the different classes of shares and complexity of how many actual outstanding Acasti shares there are, I can only guess there is about 70M Acasti shares outstanding. With a $200M value, represents $2.85 per share. I know a lot of us got a bunch of Acasti shares for free, and exercised on a bunch more for
.40 last month.
I realize there is much work still to do, but truly feel four years of incredible frustration is on the verge of paying off . . . .