RE: RE: Silvermex and Arian SilverI'd curl up in a ball and not move if I thought too often about these black swan macros. They are out there and they are going to happen, and you can "insure" a little against them by making sure you hold some physical silver and physical gold, plus perhaps the Norwegian, Chinese, Australian currencies. But equally, it may not materialise for two years, and it may not cause a meltdown in precious metal equities - quite the opposite, possibly. Which is why I feel that I can't afford not to be exposed to silver shares at the moment. If you feel it really keenly, then maybe buy some appropriate long-dated put options as insurance. I mean to.
I am not sure about the US dollar imploding directly after the Euro. Maybe it will. That's above my pay grade. I suppose it depends on how the Euro implodes - if it does. If any implosion is managed then surely the USD will benefit in the short term as a respite from the uncertainty. The reasons behind the possible Euro implosion (unwillingness of nothern Europe to pick up the tab for southern Europe's insolvency) are quite different from the problems with USD (naked money-printing). So if the Euro implodes it won't be for a reason that would similarly indict the US currency.
Ireland is going to have a general election in the new year, and may serve up a nationalist government which will opt to default and withdraw from monetary union rather than accept the onerous bailout terms. They certainly should be exiting the Euro, as should Greece, Portugal and others. In addition, the German Constitutional Court will be rendering a verdict soon on whether the bailouts contravene the German constitution. The Europhiles are currently pedalling furiously to amend the EU Treaty and create some new weasel wording about "strict conditionality" and "bondholder haircuts" to persuade German public opinion and the German judges that you can simultaneously bail someone out and also not bail them out.
Fundamentally, I am not sure the Germans themselves know whether they want to pull the plug. If you are not European you may not appreciate the almost pyschotic dogmatism with which the leaders of the EU nations perceive the harmonisation of the European project. Monetary union was flawed from the start, as it was not accompanied by political union; and the Europhiles have been waiting for this crisis for years, knowing that it would give them a decisive chance to push for political union. The Germans can't stomach common euro bonds, but it looks at the moment as if they are thrashing about looking for some, any, way, to keep the project alive. It may be that the IMF is shipped in to do the job. I'm sure Barack will print up another trillion or two to fund Portugeuse welfare benefits and Greek debt repayments for the next eighteen months.
If the Euro does break up, the most likely event would be a rump northern Euro, essentially a glorified Deutschmark; and alongside it a mediterranean euro - the Pig-o. Ireland has the option, in addition, of joining GBP in a currency union.
In summary, I would be interested if anyone could air the mechanics for why the USD would be brought down in short order after (if) the Euro breaks into two? Contagion from written-off debts? That's not a problem; the Bernank has the deepest pocket in the world; it stretches to infinity. Either directly or through the IMF the US can paper over any crack caused by a Euro fissure, at least until the USD has its own moment of hyperinflatory realisation. It is that which will bring the USD down. Whether a Euro break-up will accelerate the market processes that precipitate the tipping point of realisation that USD is weimarised, that is what bears examination.
My hunch is that we are a year at least (maybe two) away from the USD hyperinflation parabola, which means that the whole of Europe could sink into the earth and the US will still be hunky dory so long as sparkling fresh new QE dollars are still deemed to be worth something.
I wouldn't necessarily trust in my hunch. It's curl-up-in-a-ball, put options, or split between shares, metals and decent currencies - plus maybe some put options and a half-foetal position.
Anyway, to address your question a little more directly (!) the Safewealth Group, for whatever their opinion is worth, have stated that they would not go near the US (they were saying this seven years ago) and the same for Canada. Evidently they at least do see contagion/ proximity. Doesn't mean they're right; and doesn't mean they're wrong.