RE: RE: BingoHi HB,
I have full confidence in my model, and I am feeling fortunate since it has kept me on the right side of the major moves since july 1. During this time many pros had been looking for the crash July 1 and end of August. I did well in FAS during those times.
At the end of Nov, I was looking for the mkt to selloff further and then a major lower high to form per my model. Instead, the mkt held up better, and formed a slight higher high where we are now versus Nov 5th. My model is not exact in terms of short term moves, but in terms of the bigger picture, the mkt has followed my model very well.
Since July 1, I have been waiting for the mkt to trace out the moves that my model shows before it crashes. I sold my FAZ in the high $12 at the end of Nov after realizing that something wasn't right with the mkt moving sideways in the S&P 1173-1200 range for 2 weeks. After that, I was early in entering my initial positions in FAZ in the mid-high $11's due to my expectation of a lower high.
I see in my model where the mkt is currently trading, and what is coming next, and know exactly why I was early. It wasn't an ideal entry in hindsight, but I am well positioned for what my model shows coming next, and that is why I have kept these positions. Trying to get the exact top in the mkt, of course, is a challenge, and nailing the exact timing on a crash is not easy either. In the case of a crash, neither is all that important since capturing the bulk of a large crash move is the main goal. Within a few weeks is actually quite good when it comes to timing crashes. Most will miss this move, but I will not. Most are currently focussed on the short term moves, but it is the big picture that is much more important now. That always happens at major tops and bottoms - tunnel vision.
The mkt has now traced out all of the moves that my model shows including what I expected were the major lower highs. There is nothing left except a dramatic freefall with few bounces. Considering that I am looking for a huge drop perhaps I was a little over eager as a result. However, I didn't want to take any chances on missing the start of the big move.
Right now we are at the final pivot point with the mkt just consolidating and grinding along. It is simply a matter of which squiggle will lead to the collapse. It has been difficult to nail down the exact date for sure, but since I can see clearly that the patterns in my model have completed, I know the time is up, and it can't be far away.
It's not just my model, either. Many things are lining up. Extreme Trin, sentiments, Hindenburg Omen etc...
The nice thing about FAZ is that any of these prices are great. $10, $11, $12, $13 or whatever are all good entries. I am confident that FAZ is heading into the $20 and $30 range quickly. There will be some great trades along the way too, and I can see where to expect those in my model.
SC