RE: Timing...My model is based on the patterns of trading during the period from April 2010 to present. I have found near identical patterns in the past in many different time frames. The mkt is simply a cycle of boom and bust due to investors sentiments, and this cycle rhymes throughout history. Another way of thinking about it is that people react to the same situation in the same way, or that the same supply/demand forces will lead to the same price action to follow.
So when I talk about what this model shows, I am simply reporting what the trading pattern shows coming next in a time tested cyclical pattern of boom and bust. I am simply reporting what has happened in the past under the same technical situation. Keep in mind that I noticed this cycle of patterns back in July, and sure enough the mkt has now traced out and completed that pattern. It's a crash pattern, and it shows clearly what is coming next.
I have every reason to expect it to continue to work and show where to expect the bounces (trades) during the crash. The model shows me the shape of the crash. Also, since the model called for the very strong rally (as I mentioned would happen late August) in the mkts for the last number of months, I reject the idea that this mkt has rallied due to manipulation by the Fed. There is some manipulation going on, but largely this rally was short covering due to excessive shorts in the mkt end of August, and then a capitulation of bearish sentiments more recently. The mkt has simply followed the standard pattern my model suggests of boom. Now we will see the extreme bust that follows.
The exact same things happening now happened in 1930. People believed that the mkt couldn't go down, and well it did drop 87% over the next 2 years. It is quite amazing that people can be this bullish considering the fundamentals out there, and the fact that the mkt crashed just several years ago in 2008, and then the flash crash in May. Yet, my model suggested that this strong rally would happen, and few believed it in late August. This is why I am focussed on the big picture and have confidence in the model. There is a ton of other technical and fundamental data to back up the bearish case so I see it as being very clearcut.
Notice how FAZ making a higher low today from a week ago with the S&P hitting a new high. Financials have been leading down for a week already. This is bearish!
SC