SDX ENERGY INC SDRYF

RE: RE: RE: More Analyst Coverage

[gonecode]

SEE !

repost of company update and GMP targets.............

I never trust anyone with my money ......................I work the numbers and as  I Stated....

There was no way they were going to pull 5000 BOPD by this year and 10,000 in 3 years...
That is where this year started with COMPANY estimates..........

So 2000 BOPD may be possible NOW ! but 4000 by next year end...............HMMMMMMMMMM!

With less than 190 Bopd per well and not all producers ................How many wells is that and how Much $$$ ????

Oh right !             The Company never said .................
Forgive me for being down on them BUT !               How many times do you downgrade before you stop taking their word as final.

Show me is all I can say now......................2000 BOPD year end is the very least ........
Geeez they get most of that from Gemsa............KOM OMBO is the Company maker not Gemsa.

Here we are talking about 2000 BOPD and last year they were estimating 5000 BOPD and 10,000 BOPD in 3 years.
OHHHH how easy we forget..........



Good question Investing1013.   I can only go by the last update the company provided this past monday. The n/r basically stated that there were 4 KomOmbo wells which were drilled recently and are planned to go into production before year end.  I also believe that these 4 wells are in addition to any frac or workovers currently underway.
It is my expectation that any meaningful numbers will probably not be released now until sometime early in the new year.  They might as well wait until they can clearly state for the record what each well is doing as of Dec. 31st.
As for the analyst targets, no doubt there should be a healthy dose of scepticism for any of the extreme numbers. As you are well aware these targets are always meant to be 12 months down the road so the basis for these targets cannot always be accepted carte blanche.   For instance, the GMP target is based on a 2011 total production of 3500 boe/d. To me that would imply an 2011 exit rate of over 4000 boe/d.  Even the company forecast does not predict such numbers. Having said that, the x factor will be the exploration drilling which could have a significant impact on reserves and future production.  On this note, the last update mentioned that the Memphis well will spud before the year end.
So yea, I can't hide the fact that I am guardedly optimistic about the future of SDX. But make no mistake, I'm an old school investor and not a short term trader.  It is much less work this way. I don't mind sitting on this for several years.