RE: shootStallion,
I see what he is saying but the assumptions used originally are far different from what he is saying. You cant say a project is too big for a market (i.e. Cumo in moly market) and then say oh ppl will get out, and the demand increase will make it all better.
I never made the argument that Cumo is too big for the moly market. Sorry, Moly doesnt light my fire so I dont know what they can handle or cant, so as you will notice I never said Cumo is too big Caesars took that position.
Under this belief Blowsmackers arguments carry little weight. When you add a huge ripple, like shale gas has done to Natural gas, prices become depressed until mines shutter in at which time prices will move up slightly.
However until the market can fully absorb Cumo or shale gas, the price will never return to what it was pre-Cumo/Shale. If it did return, all those shuttered mines would ramp up again, since the only reason they closed was the reduced values.
Supply > Demand = Reduced Prices
Supply = Demand you get your new equilibrium.
Price remaining at present means supply will not decrease so only way you can keep current prices is if:
Increase in Demand = Cumo
Now anytime I hear too big for the market, usually says to me that the additional supply will far oustrip any growth in demand.
You believe in the Moly story go for it, you aint taking any money out of my mouth so I could care less either way. I refuse to be bullied by some name calling schmuck, who cant put together a reasonable argument without name calling and has the audacity to say others are sore losers.