RE: Now I done itHi all - I'm a longtime SH reader but have never posted. This stock has, however, piqued my interest.
I'm cautiously optimistic about Preeceville - the news releases are eerily similar to 2008, but the key differences are the salt trap and the structural high. From my experience, you absolutely need to drill into the "attic" of these reservoirs to produce any oil. I would really like to see some reservoir pressure data and even a core analysis though, because you can get oil on the shaker without having any production capability (a quick fluid shot and casing head pressure measurement would provide a good estimate of reservoir pressure, which is key for production). Dolomite porosity is much better than limestone in my opinion, and if the perfs don't yield good flow rates a quick acid job might take care of that.
Also, I read through the geologist's reports for the 2008 wells and he seems to indicate that the Mannville sand was their primary target but the Winnipegosis showed faint signs of oil. The well application stated expected Winnipegosis production, however, so I'm not sure what they were actually targeting.
I really hope that NOG is not relying on oil over the shaker and oil samples here. I imagine their seismic/geological work was solid in identifying this specific trap and I would like to see >50 bbl/d production (50 wouldn't be stellar but it would indicate some promise).
From what I can gather about NOG, the company should be worth thecurrent stock price even without Preeceville. I've worked the Lloyd areaas a reservoir engineer for some time and I know how much potentialexists there and how they could even ramp up production on their wellswith minimal capital investment (I spent a significant amount of timeworking for a major oil company optimizing Lloyd heavy oil production). Assuming Preeceville #1 comes up dry, do you think we'll head back to .10? If we see some oil, do you think we'll move into the .30s or .40s?
Disclosure - I own a small stake in NOG and also have a vested interest in a major with significant operations in SK oil.