RE: LFD VALUES INSIDEA few issues with your valuations:
Option 1 - do they produce the oil at no cost and you are calculating everything in present value dollars. No one will pay $1 today for $1 they are going to receive in 10 years. That dollar is worth about $.10.
Option 2 - the deal you are referring to is a well in Saskatchewan and not where LDF's assests are based. There will be a huge political risk factor needed to be applied to LDF's assets. Also, they do not have 5000 bbls/d of production the last time I checked.
Option 3 - Nothing for operating costs in calculation. The number you are also quoting is cash flow and not earnings. In the oil and gas world you typically will take cash flow for an asset and multiply it by 5 times and not 30 times. Also they do not have 5000 bbls/d.
I do thank you for showing how you are valuing the company. If they do hit the 5000 bbls/d the price will definately rise, but that is if. There is a lot of risk here outside the chance of drilling a successful well. The political risk and ability for this company to raise the required capital to continue with this project to me are very significant.