payrolls in USThe US economy is the focus this week and the big one is the non farm payrolls announced this a.m.
It was much lower than original estimates and half of the revised estimates.
The upwardly revised estimates came out after the ADP employment figures showed that almost 350k jobs were created in the private sector in December.
Any sell off yesterday was tied directly to the fear that the POG would drop drastically this a.m if the payrolls number was in the 200k range. It came out worse than expected POG is now up $5.00 SMF up 7%
All the reports indicated that the holiday sales figures were expected to be through the roof. This was simply a dream. Reports are now out that more than half the retailers are not meeting their expectations. Wait until the profit numbers are released. You can only buy so many heavily discounted flat screen TV's, computers or I Phones before the market dries up.
Of course most of these items are made in China which affects the US trade balance.
Fact is the US economy isn't in as good shape as some of the economists think. It's obvious because their estimates are very rarely on target.
The previous 3 weeks were year end profit lock ins added to the expectation that things are on the move in the US. They usually bury the bad news where the Fed buys back almost $7 billion in bonds in a myriad of inconsequential economic data which says very little. US dollar is being devalued daily.
Next week will see the 4th qtr prod results being released. 65,000 oz (my estimate) @ an average of $1360 per OZ.
This is $120 per OZ more over last quarter. All extra profit.
Benoit was quoted as saying production will be on the high side of guidance and the cash costs will be on the low side.
Looking at Kitco this a.m. gold is almost $250 higher than last year at this time. Where is the bursting bubble which has been called by many for the last 18 months?
Often times when the market is like this you have to close your eyes and ignore it or average down if you happened to be one of the few who bought at above $14.
There are too many positives to believe that this stock will tank or drop much lower. Look at where the analysts have placed their targets.
Wes