GREY:STPJF - Post by User
Comment by
rehsifylfon Jan 10, 2011 12:47pm
480 Views
Post# 17948814
Financing
FinancingI listened to the conf call playback. Good job on the financing.
I don't see that much happening over the next period, and I expect that some of the folks that are in STP for a quick buck, will start to sell some shares. I don't see a rush to buy, so if I were a short term investor (which I'm not) I'm not sure STP would be something I'd buy or hold right now. Again - don't take that as a prediction - just speculation on my part. To be clear - I'm not selling.
The plans for McKay River, are very aggressive IMO, and having been involved in the design and construction of comparable plants, I believe they will struggle to hit the dates. SAGD plants don't finish with a switch that says "ON". It takes years for plants to produce stable results after first steam - so if they can exit 2012 with an avg of 3500 bbls of bitumen per day from McKay, they'll be doing well (they likely won't get any oil processed until mid year, so 3500 is probably a stretch. That, plus the Senlac should be okay - but they have a ways to go to unseat Suncor.
I don't see these guys as a buy-out candidate - they, unlike many "investors" are in it for the long term. If you have a 3 year horizon and if you are willing to live with Ups and Downs without selling, you'll enjoy STP. Unfortunately, not many Stockhouse members fit that bill.