Time for the ANALysts to catch upHere is what the Scotia Capital latest report issued on Jan 11 says for CLL, Its long, so I'll post my comments first, then the report.
First - they issue the updated report on Jan 11, 2011, but right in the report they indicate a text update from Nov 11, 2010 - Great work. Too lazy to even update a two bit report - I could do it in 20 minutes.
Second - Under Company profile they list 100% interest in a 10,000 bbl/d great Divide project. 10,000? Later in the report these clowns indicate they ended the Sept Q at just under 14K bbl/day. Wow they are doing well getting 14K/day out of a 10K/day facility.
Third - They estimate cash flow for 2011 at .29/share on 449M shares = $130M, but speak of an exit rate of 17500 bbl/day rate from Great divide and an average of 15.5K /day for the year. They know the netback, even at $75 Oil was $25 (other than one blip during the year). You do the math (okay, I'll do it for you - $25 X 365 x 15500 = $141M and that is just from Oil Sands - nothing from NG, and Refinery so even with their own numbers they make no sense. If you are at all Bullish on Oil - you'd have to think that Oil will average $85 in 2011 (BTW Scotia in other reports is estimating $88) - so thats about another $6 per bbl of bitumen netback - call it $30 total. Cashflow =$170M - again just from Great Divide.
I hope to heck no-one is relying on these guys for advice on what to buy - their info is 3 months old.
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Company Profile
Connacher Oil and Gas Limited is a crude oil and natural gas exploration,
development, production and refining company. Its assets include a 100% interest in
the 10,000 bbl/d Great Divide oil sands project, conventional production in Western
Canada and a 9,500 bbl/d refinery located in Great Falls, Montana. Additionally,
Connacher owns 26 percent of Petrolifera Petroleum Limited, a publicly-traded
company listed on the TSX under the symbol PDP.
Business Mix (Based on revenues unless otherwise noted)
Production: 76% Crude, 24% Natural Gas
Performance Drivers
Commodity Prices, Exchange Rate, Crack Spreads
Comparable Companies (TSX unless otherwise noted)
UTS, OPC
.Recent Update Text as of 11NOV10 Connacher reported Q3 CFPS at
.04, in line with our estimate and slightly
.ahead of consensus of
.03. Bitumen production came in at 6.75 mbbl/d, ahead of our estimate of 6.5 mbbl/d.
More recently, bitumen production averaged 14 mbbl/d, just below the company’s
.guidance exit rate for the year. 2010E guidance was trimmed 5% on slower ramp-up at Pod One, and capex was
.increased slightly with spending on conventional assets. 2011E guidance capex at $104 million, production at 17.5 mboe/d.
The company plans to spend $104 million next year, of which 50% would be maintenance
capital. We estimate the company will spend relatively close to cash flow, with
net debt staying flat around the $800 million level by year-end 2011. Bitumen
production is expected to average a conservative 15.5 mbbl/d, or 78% of
.production capacity. Connacher also announced it is planning on selling ~2 mboe/d of conventional
production, with proceeds from this divestiture redeployed to oil sands, other
.conventional assets, and to pay down debt. We maintain our 2-SP rating.
December-31 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E Average Growth
Per-Share Data (Basic)
Earnings
.04
.21 $-0.13
.08 $-0.06 $-0.03 $-0.03
Cash Flow
.22
.22
.26
.03
.14
.29
.23 198.5%
Shares O/S (M) 188.4 202.8 214.6 327.1 433.5 449.0 449.0 17.2%