FYQ2 earnings predictionAverage gold price = $1300/oz to $1325/oz
Gold produced = 19,681oz to 21,592oz (see note)
Cash Cost = $621/oz to $575/oz
Low end:
Revenue
Metal sales = $1300 x 19,681oz = $25,585,300
Cost of sales = $621 x 19,681oz = $12,221,901
Free cash flow = $13,363,399
*Amortization and depletion = $4,813,468
Gross profit = $8,549,931
Total expenses = $8,500,000
Total other expenses = $4,000,000
Basic and diluted loss per share = $(0.0265)
Weighted average number of common shares outstanding = 130,000,000
High end:
Revenue
Metal sales = $1325 x 21,592oz = $28,609,400
Cost of sales = $575 x 21,592oz = $12,415,400
Free cash flow = $16,194,000
*Amortization and depletion = $4,702,306
Gross profit = $11,491,694
Total expenses = $7,000,000
Total other expenses = $1,000,000
Basic and diluted loss per share =
.0267
Weighted average number of common shares outstanding = 130,000,000
*$238.926/oz produced FYQ1 2011, $222.928/oz produced FYQ4 2010
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Note: the numbers on page 15 of the presentation show that the "Au ounces recovered from milling" actually represents a discount of 9.71% to the projected figures.
Taking Sept-10 for example:
30 days x 2600 tpd x 3.00 average grade x 92% operating time x 84% recovery time x 0.0352739619 grams per ounce = 6379oz
(6379oz / 5814oz) - 1 = 9.71% discount
As long as the tonnes milled/day, average grade, operating time, and recovery ratio are in line or exceed actual results, then the 5814oz figure and all figures that follow are pretty conservative.