Canadian Gold Resources Ltd T.CAN

Alf Fields Gold Forecast

[easymoney77]

Wow what a treat. Alf out of retirement with a gold forecast. Must be 10 years since we have heard from the gld guru
Firstly, to finish off on the ultra short term, here is the chart I showed a couple of days ago:

Note the small a-b-c correction from $1420. The A leg was from $1420 to $1363, a decline of $57. If the C wave is the same size, a decline of $57 from $1412.50 takes us to $1355.50.
Yesterday the PM fix was $1360.50 and the morning fix $1357.50.
Conclusion: gold has either already finished the correction or requires one minor drop below yesterday’s fixings to finish it.
Turning to the longer term picture, I sent you the following weekly price chart in mid 2009.

This is what has happened since then:

I have numbered the minor waves and concluded that wave 5 is extending. This opinion is based on the size of the corrections since the wave 4 low at $1058. The following analysis of the minor waves and their relative proportions should make this quite clear:
Wave 1           712.5 to   989.0        +276.5            +38.8% 
Wave 2           989.0 to   870.5        – 118.5            -12.0% 
Wave 3           870.5 to 1212.5        +342.0            +39.3% 
Wave 4           1212.5 to 1058.0      -154.5             -12.7% 
Wave 5           is extending – see analysis below.
Note: The similarity of the 12% declines above indicate that they are part of the same impulse wave. The much smaller declines of 7.9% and 5.9% are evidence that wave 5 is extending.
Extended wave 5:
Wave 5.i         1058.0 to 1256.0      +198               +18.7% 
Wave 5.ii        1256.0 to 1157.0      -  99                -   7.9% 
Wave 5.iii       1157.0 to 1421.0      +264               +22.8% 
Wave 5.iv       1421.0 to 1337.5      -83.5               -   5.9% 
Wave 5.v        1337.5 to 1642.0      +305               +22.8% (forecast – assumes the same % gain as 5.iii) 
Total 5            1058.0 to 1642.0      +584               +55.2%
If we assume that 5.v is an average of the 5.i and 5.iii gains of 18.7% and 22.8%, say 20%, the target for 5.v would be $1604. One further possibility is that the gain in wave 5 equals the overall gain in waves 1 through 3, i.e. $1212.5 from $712.5 = $500. This provides a target of $1058 + $500 = $1558.
This concludes the end of intermediate wave I of Major Three. The decline to follow the peak of wave I, (the peak being somewhere between $1558 and $1642), should be of a magnitude of between 16% to 22%.
I think that we can conclude that your $1650 forecast will come close to achievement during the up-move which should start this week.
Best wishes, 
Alf Fields
ShareThis